Thursday, October 23, 2014

NYMEX Trader Says Oil Prices Could Fall to $76 a Barrel on Glut

 

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- West Texas Intermediate crude oil popped $2 per barrel in early Thursday trading, as investors grew optimistic that Saudi Arabia shipped less oil supply in the month of September. 

But the rally seems likely to be short-lived, according to Spartan Commodity Partners' Alan Harry. 

Must Read: Warren Buffett's Top 10 Dividend Stocks He explained to TheStreet's Jill Malandrino that as long as WTI crude oil stays below $82.50 per barrel, he remains a seller of the commodity. So far, the main issue -- which is oversupply -- is still present in the oil market.  It doesn't help that the global economy, and in particular the European economy, isn't strong, and therefore, oil demand is lower.  With the additional oil production coming from North America and OPEC's -- the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries -- refusal to slow oil output, the market's supply is simply overwhelming demand, he explained.  XLE Chart
Energy Select Sector SPDR XLE data by YCharts

WTI crude oil traded up to $93.82 at the beginning of the month, but plummeted to $79.10 in just two weeks. It has since rebounded somewhat, but the Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) has still suffered as a result, falling more than 15% since its June highs.   If some of the oil producing countries were to curb production or if the global economy were to pick up steam, then maybe a bull case could be made for crude, he said.  "But too much supply is the overlying issue," Harry concluded, adding that WTI crude oil seems likely to decline to $76 per barrel.  Must Read: 12 Stocks Warren Buffett Loves in 2014 -- Written by Bret Kenwell  Follow @BretKenwell  

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