Thursday, June 18, 2015

Gender Gap in Financial Know-How Leveling Off

Financial Finesse held a webinar on Friday previewing data that it will release later this week in a report on the gender gap in financial literacy.

“Over the last several years, the gap has been steadily increasing” although it’s beginning to level off, Diane Winland, the report’s primary author, said in the webinar.

“Women need to get ahead of men” in order to overcome barriers like longer lifespans and less time in the work force, Winland said. Women can live between five and 10 years longer than men, she said, and tend to make less over time. The National Commission on Pay Equity found women make about $11,000 less than men per year.

The gap is largest in debt and money management, Winland said. That’s surprising because women are frequently the money managers in their families, Winland said, referring to a Boston Consulting Group study that found in 73% of households, spending is controlled by women.

Financial Finesse found the smallest gap in long-term planning, and no gap in participation in employer-sponsored retirement plans. That parity in participation doesn’t translate to actual savings, though. Winland referred to data from the Employee Benefits Research Institute that found men have saved on average $114,000 in workplace retirement plans, compared with $56,000 for women.

“We need to do a better job of putting emphasis on women taking control of their finances,” Winland said in the webinar. Winland stressed that improving women’s financial habits isn’t the only goal; women need to have more confidence in their abilities and actions in order to see improvement.

Linda Robertson, a senior financial planner at Financial Finesse, pointed out that the gender gap narrowed with higher levels of income, especially between men and women in the $150,000-to-$200,000 income range. The reason why is a subject of further study, she said.

Winland referred to a study by Allianz that showed women have a “pervasive fear of being a bag lady. No matter what position we achieve, we still have that underlying fear.”

In some areas, Financial Finesse found, women are improving while men are actually pulling back. Women improved at fee analysis, rebalancing and allocating assets. “Women are better at following a plan,” Winland said, “while men tend to be more aggressive.”

The report found men are more likely to have an emergency cash fund, pay bills on time and manage their cash flow so they’re not spending more than they make. “In order to save for long-term [goals], we need to close the gap in money management,” Robertson said.

Men are also more likely to know whether they are on track for retirement, although less than a quarter of male respondents could answer positively. “The younger men and women are when they run estimates, the smaller steps they need to take to get on track,” Robertson added. Winland said that financial education should focus on empowering people. “The highly technical, narrowly focused lecture format of education may not be the best model,” Robertson agreed. The format suggested by Financial Finesse is life goal-based and holistic, and delivers information in a way that is engaging and encourages participation. The traditional model is “definitely not the best for women and maybe for all employees,” Winland said. “Women prefer a much more kinesthetic style.”

To design effective financial educational programs, Financial Finesse suggested using a holistic approach that ties together all the benefits an employer offers. They should also work to create “ah-ha” moments that women can relate to.

Another best practice is to “fold the financial piece into the wellness program so employees can see the connection between physical health and financial health,” Winland said.

Winland added that women respond well to coaching programs with multiple steps, like an online assessment followed by group workshops and a one-on-one coaching session or call.

“To close the gap, we have to make sure women are taking positive action,” Robertson concluded. She suggested making women active participants in their financial education and giving them concrete steps to take following educational sessions.

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Check out Women More Likely to Have High Financial Stress on AdvisorOne.

Wednesday, June 17, 2015

Garmin Launches Portable HUD - Analyst Blog

Worldwide provider of navigation, communications and information devices, Garmin Ltd. (GRMN) recently announced the launch of portable Head-Up Display (HUD) for smartphone navigation apps.

The HUD facilitates easy viewing of navigation information. It projects the information on a transparent film on the windshield or an attached reflector lens. The information is procured through a Bluetooth-enabled smartphone, which features the Garmin StreetPilot1 or NAVIGON app. The information is displayed within the line of sight of the driver in order to avoid distraction.

The comprehensible information includes details about traffic situations and interchanges. It features turn arrows, distance between turns current speed of the vehicle and speed limit. It also projects the estimated time of arrival. It also informs drivers about potential traffic delays and upcoming safety camera locations.

Garmin's HUD will pair wirelessly with Bluetooth-enabled iPhone, Android and Windows-based phones. Garmin StreetPilot and NAVIGON apps start at $29.99 for a regional map with turn-by-turn navigation. Garmin is selling the HUD for $129.99.

Garmin is well positioned in the personal navigation devices market, although competitive pressures have affected its business. Garmin has continued with product launches right through the year, including the fleet 590 and a portable fleet management GPS system. New products and the company's OEM approach will continue to expand margins for the company.

In the first quarter of fiscal 2013, Garmin reported revenues of $532.0 million, down 30.8% sequentially from the seasonally strong fourth quarter. Revenues declined 4.4% year over year, mainly due to continued declines in the PND market. Volumes dropped 50.0% sequentially and 7.4% from the year-ago quarter. The Auto/Mobile segment was down 42.2% sequentially and 9.6% from the year-ago quarter.

Currently, Garmin has a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell). Other stocks that have been performing well and are! worth considering include Yahoo Inc. (YHOO), Facebook Inc. (FB) and Akamai Tech (AKAM). Both Yahoo and Akamai carry a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) while Facebook carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy).

Monday, June 15, 2015

Ostrich Effect And Passive Investing

Of the different investment strategies and behaviors that an investor or fund manager can adopt, some notable ones include active investing, passive investing and the "ostrich effect."

Active investing involves constantly buying and selling securities to profit from short-term changes in the stock market. This strategy is often very beneficial when the market is doing particularly well. Passive investing is the opposite of active investing: it employs a buy-and-hold strategy to profit from long-term trends in the stock market and is used by investors who want to avoid risks. Both active and passive investors may exhibit the ostrich effect, or a tendency to ignore bad news in the market. There is a close relationship between passive investing and the ostrich effect, which we will explore here.

What Is Passive Investing?
Passive investing is a long-term strategy that involves restricted buying and selling of securities. A passive investor buys securities to hold long term, because he or she believes that stocks will rise in the long run.

An individual who invests passively does not seek to beat the market; he or she just wants to match the market's returns. To accomplish this, passive investors often invest in index funds and exchange traded funds (ETFs) that mirror market indices. This is why passive investing is sometimes referred to as index investing.

Advantages of Passive Investing
Some advantages of passive investing include the following:

Lower costs and higher profits: Investing in index funds usually incurs lower management fees, because a passively traded portfolio requires fewer resources and less time to manage than an actively traded portfolio. If an actively traded portfolio yields the same returns as a passively traded portfolio, the passive investor will receive a higher return, because when investors sell a security, the amount of profit they receive is equal to the sell price less the buy price, minus management fees and trading commissions. Automatic gains from market upswings: Since passive portfolios are constructed to closely follow the performance of market benchmarks like the S&P 500, the passive investor experiences gains when the market is in an upswing. Fewer bad management decisions: An actively traded portfolio relies on management to decide which securities to trade and when to do so, whereas a passively managed portfolio is designed to automatically track all the securities traded on a particular index. Thus, a passively managed portfolio reduces the risk that the investment will be affected by bad management decisions. Disadvantages of Passive Investing
Some disadvantages of passive investing include the following:

Automatic losses from market downswings: Since passive portfolios mirror the market, when the market experiences a downturn, the passive portfolio suffers, and the investor might experience losses if he or she chooses to sell during this time. Inability to beat market: A passive investor cannot outperform the market. If an investor believes that he or she can beat the market, then passive investing is not the right strategy. What Is the Ostrich Effect?
The ostrich effect is a term used in behavioral finance to describe the habit of some investors to pretend that bad news in the market doesn't exist. This behavior is named after the bird because investors who behave this way "bury their heads in the sand," or ignore bad news in the market. This behavior is often displayed by investors who are risk averse.

Advantages of the Ostrich Effect
The advantages of the ostrich effect can be both emotional and financial.

Emotional benefit: The psychological impact of bad news is limited or almost nonexistent. Advantages from market cycles: The market operates on a cyclical basis: it goes up and down frequently, and the only uncertainty is the duration of each phase. If investors sell their securities whenever they hear bad news, they could sustain unnecessary losses as well as miss out on great returns when the news turns good. Investors who ignore bad news are still in the market when returns improve, putting them in the right place at the right time. Disadvantages of the Ostrich Effect
The ostrich effect has two disadvantages:

Ignorance leads to major losses: If market bad news is a warning that a particular investment is unlikely to rebound, ignoring the situation can lead to major losses for the investor. Increased potential for missing good investment opportunities: Burying your head in the sand when it comes to bad news in the marketplace means that if a great investment opportunity arises or results from the bad news, that chance is lost. Passive Investing Versus the Ostrich Effect
It is important to know the relationship between passive investing and the ostrich effect, so that you are aware of the investment behavior you are engaged in and the effect it can have on your assets.

Passive investing and the ostrich effect are similar in that investors engage in both because they are risk-averse and want to avoid losing money. However, a passive investor does not ignore news about the market, good or bad. A passive investor is willing to trade potentially higher returns for the relative safety of going along with the market.

On the other hand, an investor who exhibits the ostrich effect ignores bad news about the market and pretends it does not exist. The ostrich effect is not limited to just one investing style - an active investor can also behave like an ostrich when there is bad news about the market.

Regardless of the investment strategy you choose to adopt, being knowledgeable about events in the market, both good and bad, can mean the difference between a gain and a loss. Choosing to invest in market securities and then deciding not to pay attention to the market on a bad day is a surefire way to lose money.

The Bottom Line
As an investor, it is very important that you be aware of news from the market and how it might affect your investments. Ignoring any news, especially bad news, can lead to poor investment decision-making and major losses.


Tuesday, June 9, 2015

Don't Get Too Worked Up Over Central Garden & Pet's Earnings

Although business headlines still tout earnings numbers, many investors have moved past net earnings as a measure of a company's economic output. That's because earnings are very often less trustworthy than cash flow, since earnings are more open to manipulation based on dubious judgment calls.

Earnings' unreliability is one of the reasons Foolish investors often flip straight past the income statement to check the cash flow statement. In general, by taking a close look at the cash moving in and out of the business, you can better understand whether the last batch of earnings brought money into the company, or merely disguised a cash gusher with a pretty headline.

Calling all cash flows
When you are trying to buy the market's best stocks, it's worth checking up on your companies' free cash flow once a quarter or so, to see whether it bears any relationship to the net income in the headlines. That's what we do with this series. Today, we're checking in on Central Garden & Pet (Nasdaq: CENT  ) , whose recent revenue and earnings are plotted below.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Data is current as of last fully reported fiscal quarter. Dollar values in millions. FCF = free cash flow. FY = fiscal year. TTM = trailing 12 months.

Over the past 12 months, Central Garden & Pet burned $18.3 million cash while it booked net income of $19.6 million. That means it burned through all its revenue and more. That doesn't sound so great. FCF is less than net income. Ideally, we'd like to see the opposite.

All cash is not equal
Unfortunately, the cash flow statement isn't immune from nonsense, either. That's why it pays to take a close look at the components of cash flow from operations, to make sure that the cash flows are of high quality. What does that mean? To me, it means they need to be real and replicable in the upcoming quarters, rather than being offset by continual cash outflows that don't appear on the income statement (such as major capital expenditures).

For instance, cash flow based on cash net income and adjustments for non-cash income-statement expenses (like depreciation) is generally favorable. An increase in cash flow based on stiffing your suppliers (by increasing accounts payable for the short term) or shortchanging Uncle Sam on taxes will come back to bite investors later. The same goes for decreasing accounts receivable; this is good to see, but it's ordinary in recessionary times, and you can only increase collections so much. Finally, adding stock-based compensation expense back to cash flows is questionable when a company hands out a lot of equity to employees and uses cash in later periods to buy back those shares.

So how does the cash flow at Central Garden & Pet look? Take a peek at the chart below, which flags questionable cash flow sources with a red bar.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Data is current as of last fully reported fiscal quarter. Dollar values in millions. TTM = trailing 12 months.

When I say "questionable cash flow sources," I mean items such as changes in taxes payable, tax benefits from stock options, and asset sales, among others. That's not to say that companies booking these as sources of cash flow are weak, or are engaging in any sort of wrongdoing, or that everything that comes up questionable in my graph is automatically bad news. But whenever a company is getting more than, say, 10% of its cash from operations from these dubious sources, investors ought to make sure to refer to the filings and dig in.

With 91.1% of operating cash flow coming from questionable sources, Central Garden & Pet investors should take a closer look at the underlying numbers. Within the questionable cash flow figure plotted in the TTM period above, stock-based compensation and related tax benefits provided the biggest boost, at 47.2% of cash flow from operations. Overall, the biggest drag on FCF came from capital expenditures.

A Foolish final thought
Most investors don't keep tabs on their companies' cash flow. I think that's a mistake. If you take the time to read past the headlines and crack a filing now and then, you're in a much better position to spot potential trouble early. Better yet, you'll improve your odds of finding the underappreciated home-run stocks that provide the market's best returns.

Selling to fickle consumers is a tough business for Central Garden & Pet or anyone else in the space. But some companies are better equipped to face the future than others. In a new report, we'll give you the rundown on three companies that are setting themselves up to dominate retail. Click here for instant access to this free report.

We can help you keep tabs on your companies with My Watchlist, our free, personalized stock tracking service.

Add Central Garden & Pet to My Watchlist.

Monday, June 8, 2015

The Surprising Link Between ADHD and Obesity

A new long-term study of men with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder, or ADHD, has linked the disorder with an increased likelihood of becoming obese in adulthood.

The study tracked men with ADHD for more than 30 years and found that a whopping 41% of them were obese compared to 22% of patients in a matched control group who didn't have ADHD. The control group pretty accurately matches the general population, arguing there's something special about the high rate of obesity in men with ADHD.

The obvious explanation is that patients with ADHD have a hard time with impulse control. If you can't resist being the class clown, it's hard to resist eating that extra cookie.

Interestingly adults that had controlled their ADHD symptoms as an adult seemed to have a higher rate of obesity than those that continued to have symptoms. The results could simply be because the study was small -- there were only 111 in the ADHD group -- or it's possible those that have controlled their symptoms have developed a coping mechanism that involves overeating to stimulate the dopamine receptors.

Investment opportunity?
The men in this study were 41, so they were kids in the 1970s, long before drugs such as Pfizer's (NYSE: PFE  ) Quillivant XR, Eli Lilly's (NYSE: LLY  ) Strattera, Johnson & Johnson's (NYSE: JNJ  ) Concerta, or Shire's (NASDAQ: SHPG  ) multitude of ADHD drugs were available to treat the disease.

It seems reasonable to assume that if adolescence could control their ADHD, it might decrease their desire to overeat. There's some evidence for this hypothesis from another study that found children with ADHD who weren't taking medication were 1.5 times as likely to be overweight than those who took ADHD medications.

Companies that sell ADHD medications are in a constant battle with groups that think that children are being over-diagnosed and over-medicated. Avoiding obesity would add arsenal to the argument that treating with drugs is a better choice.

Of course, the companies have to be careful to not overstep their marketing. Side effects for some ADHD medications include reduced appetite and weight loss, which might explain why medicating reduces the likelihood of being overweight. But they're not approved to be used to treat obesity, so the companies aren't allowed to promote them for that purpose. In the fourth quarter of last year, Shire took a $57.5 million charge to settle an investigation of Shire's marketing practices for its ADHD drugs, although it didn't detail exactly what practices the Department of Justice wasn't happy about.

If all else fails, there are drugs actually approved to treat obesity
VIVUS and Arena Pharmaceuticals are in a battle to capture the obesity market with their recently launched drugs. If you're in the dark, grab copies of The Motley Fool's premium research reports on VIVUS and Arena Pharmaceuticals to stay up to date. The reports give investors the must-know information, including an in-depth look at the obesity market and reasons to buy and sell both stocks. Click now for an exclusive look at Arena and VIVUS -- complete with a full year of free updates -- today.

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Thursday, June 4, 2015

Why Bank of America Is Waffling Today

Since reporting earnings Wednesday morning, Bank of America (NYSE: BAC  ) lost 6.5% through trading yesterday. The initial response to B of A's earnings was largely negative due to reported revenue that missed expectations -- even though continued improvements in the bank's operations resulted in quadrupled earnings. The bank opened 1% higher this morning, giving some hope to the possibility of regaining some of the traction it's lost in the past two days, but quickly fell within minutes of the opening bell. As of 10:15 a.m. EDT, Bank of America is sitting at a 0.8% gain.

Earnings disappointments continue
This earnings season hasn't been very favorable for the big four banks, with many investors being disappointed in underlying data points that caused improvements in earnings to be largely set aside. This was the case last week for both JPMorgan Chase  (NYSE: JPM  ) and Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC  ) , which both reported record first-quarter earnings. However, both banks reported softening in the mortgage market, leaving investors with doubts about revenue growth for future quarters.

Bank of America reported an improvement in its mortgage origination operations, though it missed analyst expectations for revenue, which generated the same response from investors, leading to a big drop over the past two days. But while there are many voices asserting displeasure in BAC's report, there are an equal number citing vast improvements in the bank's operations and underscoring the importance of looking beyond what analyst expect.

New developments
Fueling this morning's drop may be something other than continued investor disappointment in the bank's earnings -- insurer AIG (NYSE: AIG  ) has just won an important fight in the continuing legal battle against Bank of America. In a suit filed back in August of 2011, AIG is seeking damages for losses caused by mortgage-backed securities sold by B of A's Countrywide and Merrill Lynch segments. The insurer contends that Countrywide and Merrill Lynch misrepresented the securities, leading to AIG's losses.

This morning, a federal appeals court overturned a prior ruling blocking the transfer of the case to a New York State court, which AIG argues is the correct venue for the case. This is a big win for AIG as the delay in this case was largely due to this issue. If AIG wins the case overall, Bank of America may have to pay up to $10 billion in claims related to the $28 billion in securities sold to AIG.

A day at a time
As always, be careful how you assess a day's movements. Even though there is new information that could affect Bank of America, there remains an underlying strength in the continued improvements within the bank -- giving it the momentum to continue growing. As a Foolish investor, remember that one day's changes won't always stick with the company for the long term, so if you're confident in the fundamentals of the company, don't let one piece of news or a sell-off scare you away. 

Bank of America's stock doubled in 2012. Is there more yet to come? With significant challenges still ahead, it's critical to have a solid understanding of this megabank before adding it to your portfolio. In The Motley Fool's premium research report on B of A, analysts Anand Chokkavelu, CFA, and Matt Koppenheffer, Financials bureau chief, lift the veil on the bank's operations, including detailing three reasons to buy and three reasons to sell. Click here now to claim your copy.

Wednesday, June 3, 2015

Comcast Vows Better Customer Service While Skeptics Scoff

#fivemin-widget-blogsmith-image-478728{display:none}.cke_show_borders #fivemin-widget-blogsmith-image-478728,#postcontentcontainer #fivemin-widget-blogsmith-image-478728{width:570px;display:block} Time Warner Cable And Comcast Among The Most Unpopular Companies In America At the annual International Consumer Electronics Show, it's traditional to hear announcements of the most amazing things, some of which are so amazing that it's hard to believe they might happen. For example, Windows tablets have yet to put the sales of iPads to shame. Past announcements of smartwatches never saw them become a must for the fashion conscious. This year, perhaps one of the most eyebrow-raising claims belonged to Comcast (CMCSA) (CMCSK). "We expect that customer service will soon be one of our best products," said CEO Neil Smit, according to tech blog BGR. That would be one astonishing turnaround. Although, as BGR put it, "Considering the quality of most of Comcast's products, this wouldn't be very difficult to achieve." In "The Prince," Machiavelli once debated whether it was better for a leader to be feared or loved. (He said both if possible, but if not, then feared.) What he didn't address so clearly was the utility of being hated. That's been Comcast's quandary, as the company has exceeded at being hated. It won -- if that's the right word -- Consumerist's audience poll of the most hated company in the country last year. That was the second time the largest cable television provider in the U.S. grabbed the crown, with 2010 being the first. Comcast beat out the likes of Monsanto (MON), Walmart (WMT) and Bank of America (BAC). It even bested SeaWorld (SEAS) after the scandalous Blackfish documentary. The reason? Bad customer service. No, make that service so terrible that it has gained national attention on more than one occasion in just the last year: A tech journalist recorded his attempt to cancel his Comcast service, as Time reported, while a "customer retention" specialist desperately tried to keep him from doing so. Another man had multiple problems with inaccurate billing and was only able to resolve it because he had recorded a Comcast customer service rep previously making a promise, according to Mashable. Comcast managed to get a customer fired over a billing dispute and eventually apologized, as AOL Jobs reported. BGR reported that Comcast closed out the year by making a customer spend four hours on the phone to cancel service. This is beyond bad service. It's the stuff of legend that makes attempts to merge with Time Warner Cable (TWC) a tad more difficult than might otherwise be the case. But all that is behind Comcast, according to Smit. "We do need to transform our customer experience, and I think we have a lot of work to do," Smit said, according to Consumerist. "It will take time, but we'll get it done," in what Consumerist said could be the "understatement of the century." Of course, it may take a phone call or two. Or three. More from Erik Sherman
•Plunging Oil Prices Send Some Things Up, Others Down •Worst Charities? Or Victims of an Indifferent Public? •Same-Sex Marriage Promises Big Economic Boost to Some States

Monday, June 1, 2015

Home prices jump nearly 11% in April

case schiller 062414 NEW YORK (CNNMoney) Home prices jumped nearly 11% in April , and are now up more than 22% from the bottom three years ago.

Still, they are 18% below the peak set in July 2006, according to S&P/Case-Shiller. And price gains are slowing.

"Although home prices rose in April, the annual gains weakened," says David Blitzer of S&P Dow Jones Indices. "Last year some Sunbelt cities were seeing year-over-year numbers close to 30%, now all are below 20%."

Low mortgage rates, which the Federal Reserve is expected to keep reined in through mid-2015, and gains in the job market should continue to help the housing market, according to Blitzer.

But don't get too comfortable.

Home sales are being supported by all-cash buys and low supply, said Blitzer. And he says qualifying for a mortgage is still a problem.

"First time home buyers are not back in force," he said.

Sunday, May 31, 2015

Wintry Weather Blamed for Walmart's Earnings Drop

Earns Walmart Steven Senne/AP NEW YORK -- Walmart's first-quarter net income fell 5 percent as the world's largest retailer was hurt by bad winter weather and continues to see its low-income customers struggle in the U.S. and around the globe. The company's performance missed Wall Street's expectations, and it gave a weak second-quarter earnings forecast. Walmart's (WMT) stock fell nearly 3 percent in premarket trading Thursday. The results underscore the big challenges facing Walmart's new CEO, Doug McMillon, who took over the top role on Feb. 1. The retailer is considered an economic bellwether, with the company accounting for nearly 10 percent of nonautomotive retail spending in the U.S. Walmart's latest performance appears to show that many people are having a hard time stretching their money between paychecks. For the period ended April 30, the Bentonville, Arkansas, company earned $3.59 billion, or $1.11 a share. That compares with $3.78 billion, or $1.14 a share, a year ago. Walmart Stores said that bad weather hurt earnings by about 3 cents a share. Its performance was also dinged by a higher-than-expected tax rate. Income from continuing operations was $1.10 a share. Analysts, on average, expected earnings of $1.15 a share, according to a FactSet survey. "Like other retailers in the United States, the unseasonably cold and disruptive weather negatively impacted U.S. sales and drove operating expenses higher than expected," President and CEO Doug McMillon said in a statement. But Walmart has been suffering from weak sales in the U.S. for some time. Sales at U.S. stores open at least a year slipped 0.2 percent in the quarter, the fifth consecutive quarter of decline the metric, considered a key gauge of a retailer's financial performance. Analysts had been expecting the measure to be flat. In the U.S., while jobs are easier to get and the housing market is gaining momentum, these improvements haven't been enough to get Americans to spend. On top of that, the Nov. 1 expiration of a temporary boost in food stamps is hurting its shoppers' ability to spend. Total revenue rose 1 percent to $114.96 billion. Wall Street was calling for higher revenue of $116.43 billion. Revenues Rise McMillon said in a prerecorded call that U.S. sales rose during the second half of the quarter, but that Sam's Club had lower-than-expected sales. While membership income climbed, McMillon said it was mostly because of a fee increase started last year. Total U.S. revenue rose 2 percent to $67.85 billion. Walmart International's sales rose 3.4 percent in the quarter, on a constant currency basis. Walmart, which has 10,994 stores in 27 countries, is facing stiff completion from dollar chains and online king Amazon.com (AMZN). Walmart has been sharpening its focus on everyday low prices at U.S. stores and further pushing that strategy abroad. Walmart also said earlier in the year that it will speed up growth plans for its smaller Neighborhood Markets and Walmart Express stores that cater to shoppers looking for more convenience with fresh produce and meat and household and beauty products. In a call with the media, Walmart executives said super centers are getting bigger purchases on each trip from people stocking up on bulk items, but traffic has been weaker, particularly in the bottom performing 10 percent of its stores. At Neighborhood Markets, on the other hand, traffic is up 4 percent as people buy fill-in items at the smaller stores. For the second quarter, Walmart anticipates earnings from continuing operations in a range of $1.15 to $1.25 a share. Analysts predict earnings of $1.28 a share. The company's shares fell $2.41, or 3.1 percent, to $76.33 in premarket trading just before the market opened.

Thursday, May 28, 2015

What ‘Fargo’s’ Debut Ratings Mean for FX’s Future

While FX's (a subsidiary of Fox (NASDAQ: FOXA  ) ) new limited-run series Fargo got a very warm reception from critics, the reaction from audiences was a little more mixed. The drama, starring Martin Freeman and Billy Bob Thornton, pulled in respectable numbers with its premiere, but not the Earth-shattering ones many may have hoped for ... at least not yet.

Ratings

("Fargo." Credit: FX)

Based on the 1996 Oscar-winning film by the Coen Brothers, Fargo kicked off its 10-week run Tuesday night with 2.7 million viewers tuning in, pulling a 0.8 rating in the all-important 18-49 demographic. That might not look like much, but after adding in the two replays, that number ballooned to 4.1 million viewers and a much stronger 1.4 demo rating. And delayed viewing -- people recording then watching during the ensuing week on their own terms -- is having an ever increasing effect.

Adding in those who got around to watching within three days of the original helped offset initially disappointing numbers for other recent shows. The Americans' second season opener the other month earned 1.9 million viewers live, but when (the now more accepted) +3-day time-shifted viewing data came in, that number vaulted to 3.3 million. Similarly last summer's rookie drama The Bridge ended up around 3 million viewers in its +3. So Fargo's numbers will improve once all the views of its 90-minute opener are counted.

Analysis

What the means is that Fargo basically got off to a so-so start, though it's hard to truly judge it without the full time-shifted picture. Looking at just the early ratings, the slightly lower than expected results could be a result of the longer run time or more likely audience aversion to the darker material audiences have come to expect from Joel and Ethan Coen.

 

Still you have to remember FX by nature is a darker network -- just look at The Shield and American Horror Story -- so this is a perfect home. The twist here is that in other cases audiences will usually tune into a new series and then base future viewing on that first episode; here there was already an established formula. While it was a benefit that audiences were aware of the world (and style) in which Fargo takes place, it also immediately turned off viewers who weren't fans of the movie and as a result had no desire to check it out (even though the film and series have different plots).

Long run

("The Bridge." Credit: FX)

Fargo isn't the network's only hope for new series success in 2014 ... it just happens to be the first. Even if its numbers disappointment, FX's dramatic series forecast is still very strong, despite the upcoming departures of Sons of Anarchy and Justified. This week the network gave a third season renewal to The Americans, which has kept up its critical buzz in its sophomore run and is making a strong case (again) for Emmy consideration. In addition, this summer FX will bow two more new series as well as the second season of last year's hit The Bridge, which stars Demian Bichir and Diane Kruger.

Those two new series in particular could prove to be game-changers as both are already beginning to make waves. First in June is Tyrant, which comes from the powerhouse team of Gideon Raff, Howard Gordon, and Craig Wright. Fans may recognize those names from Emmy-winning dramas such as Homeland and 24. The series follows the second son of a Middle Eastern dictator who returns home after a self-imposed exile, during which he's married an American and had two kids.

Following that a month later is The Strain, which comes from the equally well known king of dark fantasy Guillermo del Toro. The series is based on his literary trilogy of the same name that he co-wrote with Chuck Hogan (who will also be one of the show's producers). Starring House of Cards' Cory Stoll, the series follows a Centers for Disease Control team who must battle a mysterious viral outbreak in NYC that has hallmarks of an ancient and evil strain of vampirism.

These are high-profile series on two completely different ends of the spectrum. Tyrant is meant to be centered in reality while Strain is purely rooted in fiction, but that helps FX cast a wider net to hook viewers. The summer time may be the "off-season" for the major networks, but for cable it's open season. TNT, USA, and FX are just some of the many channels that value the same May-August time frame once discarded by short-sighted executives.

It's a time for networks to play around and see what its audiences respond best to without the constrictions of the typical programming year. Those lessons not only help set the tone for the rest of the year but allow networks to take fliers on shows like Fargo, which can be both polarizing and trendsetters.

Cable's dominance

Do you know how to profit off the success of FX and its cable rivals? There's $2.2 trillion out there to be had and currently cable networks own a big piece of it, but that won't last. Click here for the names of companies look to flip the script on traditional TV.

Wednesday, May 27, 2015

Barclays cuts 12,000 jobs, ups bonuses 10%

A previous version of this story misstated the number of people employed by Barclays.

LONDON — Britain's second-largest bank by assets Barclays is to cut 12,000 jobs, the firm's chief executive said on a conference call Tuesday.

Antony Jenkins confirmed the job losses as the bank said it had increased bonus payments by 10% in 2013 to $3.9 billion.

The job losses and bump in payments came on a day when Barclays announced that annual operating profit for 2013 at its key investment banking unit slumped 37% to $4.1 billion.

"We pay for performance and we pay competitively," Jenkins, 52, said in an interview with BBC radio. "It goes back to having the best talent across the world to serve our clients and customers."

Around half of the job losses, which are aimed at cutting costs as the bank continues to reshape its business, will be in Britain.

The company employs about 140,000 people around the world from Singapore to San Francisco.

Shares in Barclays declined around 2% in London-listed trading following the announcement.

Monday, May 25, 2015

J.C. Penney Shares Fall Below $5

The last time J.C. Penney Co.'s(JCP) stock price traded this low, the New York Mets were an expansion team.

Shares of the struggling department-store chain dropped 14% on Tuesday and fell below $5, a level it hasn’t closed below on a split-adjusted basis since October 1962.

The latest decline comes after J.C. Penney reported a slim holiday sales gain, making only the barest progress in climbing out of its deep hole. J.C. Penney said comparable-store sales rose about 2% in the fourth quarter, the first time since the second quarter of 2011 that the company reported growth in the closely watched figure.

The quarterly sales gain “is a step in the right direction (but) the slope of the improvement continues to disappoint,’ said analysts at Sterne Agee, adding that Penney’s “sales trend need to improve materially better…and quickly.”

J.C. Penney shares have been mired in a steep downtrend for years. Shares traded above $40 two years ago and as high as $87 in 2007. The company, which was an original member of the S&P 500 going back to its start in 1957, was booted out of the index last year. It currently sports a market capitalization of about $1.5 billion, according to FactSet.

“J.C. Penney needs the improvement to be much better than currently tracking and it is becoming increasingly critical that the company starts to see meaningful improvement if it is to survive as currently constituted,” Sterne Agee says.

As an aside, the Mets finished that 1962 season with a woeful 120 losses. The team rebounded to win its first World Series seven years later.

If only J.C. Penney could stage such a turnaround.

–Kevin Kingsbury and Ben Fox Rubin contributed to this report.

Sunday, May 24, 2015

It’s the Most Contrarian Time of the Year…For Stock Pickers

It’s that time of the year, the one where investors buy the year’s losers–like International Business Machines (IBM), BHP Billiton (BHP) and Rio Tinto (RIO)–on the expectation that they will pop once the new year begins.

Eva-Lotta Jansson/Bloomberg/Getty Images

While the strategy might work in January, don’t expect it to last, says Citigroup’s Robert Buckland and team in a report released last week. They write:

While simple contrarian strategies often perform very well at big macro turning points, they tend to underperform the rest of the time.

Contrarians were punished in 2013. An extension of a two-year 40% rally in global equities has made this one of the biggest momentum years since 1998.

But that won't stop the contrarians trying. Their big trade for 2014 will be to buy (again) the commodity-related stocks and Emerging Market countries…

While contrarian stock picking strategies are unsuccessful most years, they do tend to outperform in January.

How bad were contrarian picks in 2013? While Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) has gained 98% in 2013 after losing 45% in 2012, others caused heavy losses. Barrick Gold (ABX), for instance, has dropped another 51% this year after losing 25% in 2012, while Goldcorp (GG) has fallen 41% after dropping 19%. (Citigroup is picking the 10 worst performing stocks among the 250 largest companies in the MSCI All-Country World Index.)

Citigroup’s contrarian picks for 2014 include International Business Machines, which has dropped 4.4% this year, BHP Billiton, which has fallen 14%, and Rio Tinto, which is off 6% in 2013.

Shares of Hewlett-Packard have gained 0.4% to $28.28 today at 9:36 a.m., while Barrick Gold has risen 1.6% to $17.57, and Goldcorp has advanced 0.9% to $21.77. Shares of International Business Machines have gained 0.5% to $184.19, while BHP Billiton has fallen 0.3% to $66.88and Rio Tinto is little changed at $54.70.

Wednesday, May 20, 2015

Is Nucor’s Disappointment Good News for AK Steel and US Steel?

Nucor’s (NUE) side-bet on natural gas looks to be a loser, as the steel company called a halt to its natural-gas project with Encana (ECA) today.

Reuters

Bloomberg details impact of that decision:

The move will reduce Nucor's 2014 capital expenditure by about $400 million, the Charlotte, North Carolina-based company said in a statement today. In July it had forecast spending of $1.1 billion next year…

Nucor also said today it will earn 35 to 40 cents a share in the fourth quarter, compared with 43 cents a year earlier. The average of 18 estimates compiled by Bloomberg was for profit of 40 cents. Nucor's projection includes 6 cents per share of inventory expenses, compared with a 14-cent credit a year earlier, the company said.

The news has hit Nucor’s shares today. Its stock has dropped 1.4% to $51.30, even as U.S. Steel (X) has gained 0.3% to $27.20, AK Steel (AKS) has gained 1.2% to $6.10 and Steel Dynamics (STLD) has decline 0.1% to $18.95. Encana is little changes at $17.95.

Citigroup’s Brian Yu explains that the earnings announcement is good news for AK Steel, U.S. Steel and Steel Dynamics:

As expected, the company noted improved profitability from their sheet unit, despite the three week planned outage at their Berkeley County mill, due to a series of price hikes. Bar and structural mills saw weaker performance in 4Q due to planned outages for upgrades at their SBQ mill in Norfolk and structural mill in Blytheville. NUE's comments and guidance have positive implications for sheet producers AKS and X as well as STLD.

Shares of Nucor have gained 19% this year, while US Steel is up 14%, AK Steel has risen 33% and Steel Dynamics has advanced 38%.

Tuesday, May 19, 2015

Can Sirius XM Radio Continue to Rise?

With shares of Sirius XM Radio (NASDAQ:SIRI) trading around $4, is SIRI an OUTPERFORM, WAIT AND SEE, or STAY AWAY? Let's analyze the stock with the relevant sections of our CHEAT SHEET investing framework:

T = Trends for a Stock's Movement

Sirius XM Radio broadcasts its music, sports, entertainment, comedy, talk, news, traffic, and weather channels in the United States on a subscription fee basis through its two satellite radio systems. Subscribers can also receive music and other channels over the Internet, including through applications for mobile devices. Audio entertainment has always pleased consumers and is a medium that is growing in popularity. Sirius XM Radio is looking to expand its audio entertainment channels to every audio medium possible, which will surely translate to rising profits.

Sirius XM Radio reported third-quarter earnings on Thursday morning after the opening bell, giving results and guidance that missed analyst expectations. Sirius's income was $62.89 million, down from $74.5 million a year ago, and although revenue grew 11 percent to $961.5 million, that figure fell short of estimates by over $10 million. Revenue per subscriber was also up to $12.29 from $12.14 last year, but again missed forecasts. Sirius said it expects to make $4 billion in revenue in 2014, a figure below Wall Street expectations.

T = Technicals on the Stock Chart Are Strong

Sirius XM Radio stock has established higher highs and higher lows in the last few years. The stock is currently trading slightly below highs for the year and looks set to continue. Analyzing the price trend and its strength can be done using key simple moving averages. What are the key moving averages? The 50-day (pink), 100-day (blue), and 200-day (yellow) simple moving averages. As seen in the daily price chart below, Sirius XM Radio is trading above its rising key averages, which signal neutral to bullish price action in the near-term.

SIRI

(Source: Thinkorswim)

Taking a look at the implied volatility (red) and implied volatility skew levels of Sirius XM Radio options may help determine if investors are bullish, neutral, or bearish.

Implied Volatility (IV)

30-Day IV Percentile

90-Day IV Percentile

Sirius XM Radio Options

31.54%

0%

0%

What does this mean? This means that investors or traders are buying a very small amount of call and put options contracts as compared to the last 30 and 90 trading days.

Put IV Skew

Call IV Skew

November Options

Flat

Average

December Options

Flat

Average

As of today, there is an average demand from call buyers or sellers and low demand by put buyers or high demand by put sellers, all neutral to bullish over the next two months. To summarize, investors are buying a very small amount of call and put option contracts and are leaning neutral to bullish over the next two months.

On the next page, let's take a look at the earnings and revenue growth rates and the conclusion.

E = Earnings Are Mixed Quarter-Over-Quarter

Rising stock prices are often strongly correlated with rising earnings and revenue growth rates. Also, the last four quarterly earnings announcement reactions help gauge investor sentiment on Sirius XM Radio's stock. What do the last four quarterly earnings and revenue growth (Y-O-Y) figures for Sirius XM Radio look like and more importantly, how did the markets like these numbers?

2013 Q3

2013 Q2

2013 Q1

2012 Q4

Earnings Growth (Y-O-Y)

0.00%

-95.83%

0.00%

104.80%

Revenue Growth (Y-O-Y)

11.00%

12.23%

11.52%

13.87%

Earnings Reaction

-3.82%*

2.71%

5.86%

1.26%

Sirius XM Radio has seen mixed earnings and rising revenue figures over the last four quarters. From these numbers, the markets have had conflicting feelings about Sirius XM Radio's recent earnings announcements.

* As of this writing

P = Weak Relative Performance Versus Peers and Sector

How has Sirius XM Radio stock done relative to its peers, Pandora (NYSE:P), CBS (NYSE:CBS), Cumulus Media (NASDAQ:CMLS), and sector?

Sirius XM Radio

Pandora

CBS

Cumulus Media

Sector

Year-to-Date Return

36.51%

191.10%

56.86%

115.00%

98.76%

Sirius XM Radio has been a poor relative performer, year-to-date.

Conclusion

Sirius XM Radio provides audio entertainment and information via subscription services to a growing listener base. A recent earnings release has the markets expecting more from the company. The stock has been trending higher in recent years and is currently near highs for the year. Over the last four quarters, earnings have been mixed while revenues have been rising which has produced conflicting feelings among investors. Relative to its peers and sector, Sirius XM Radio has been a weak year-to-date performer. Look for Sirius XM Radio to OUTPERFORM.

Monday, May 18, 2015

Amazon Shares Hit All-Time High as Analyst Upgrades

NEW YORK (AP) -- Shares of Amazon reached a new all-time high today as a UBS analyst raised the online retailer's rating and price target, saying it has a chance to speed up revenue growth heading into the holiday season.

The spark: Eric Sheridan of UBS lifted Amazon.com to "Buy" from "Neutral" and increased its price target to $385 from $305.

The analysis: Sheridan said in a client note that Amazon should be able to speed up its revenue growth in the fourth quarter and beyond in part because it should benefit from the rollout of new video games and gaming consoles, such as Sony Corp.'s Playstation 4 and Microsoft Corp.'s Xbox One -- which are expected to launch in November.

The analyst said that Amazon is well-positioned going forward, as it has worked hard this year on bringing together its hardware and software through actions such as hardware launches, software improvements, streaming content additions and its Amazon Payments system.

Sheridan anticipates an in-line quarter for Amazon when it reports financial results on Thursday. He noted that the near-term may be volatile for online businesses, given eBay's comments this week about expectations for a sluggish holiday season for the U.S. online business and potential impact of the temporary government shutdown.

Share action: The stock climbed $14.18, or 4.6%, to $324.95 in midday trading. Earlier, it touched $325.64 -- a fresh all-time high. Many technology-oriented companies are trading higher Friday. Google's strong third-quarter results sent its stock past $1,000 per share for the first time since it went public nine years ago.

Wednesday, May 13, 2015

Growlife Unveils Plans to Grow Like a Weed (PHOT)

Most of the time when someone says "hindsight is 20/20", it's said with a hint of regret or lamentation - having access to more information would have been helpful, given the outcome. In the case of Growlife Inc. (OTCBB:PHOT), however, the fact that hindsight is a 20/20 affair confirms something exciting that was already being alluded to. That exciting something for PHOT and shareholders? The organization is on the verge of a major expansion.

Those familiar with PHOT will say the clues started to materialize back on July 18th when the company hired Randy Breitman to fill the newly-created position of Director of Business Development. The "new hire" theme was underscored yesterday when Growlife named John Genisi as the new CFO. Both gentlemen are tops in their respective arenas, and should provide the corporation with outstanding service. Those aren't the first glimmers of a serious expansion for the company, however.

No, the growth wave actually started way back on June 26th, when Growlife Inc. told us it was opening a new retail store in New Hampshire. With six hydroponic and growing equipment stores already up and running, the one in New Hampshire would be the seventh. It would be the first truly organically grown store that PHOT would open, however. The six existing ones were stores in place before the company M&A's itself into the company we know today. Much like a Lay's potato chip though, we probably should have known that "no one can eat just one" (or in the case of a retailer, no one can grow by just one - many more are apt to be on the way). Sure enough...

New Hampshire isn't the only new store opening on the radar. As it turns out, per today's announcement there are 29 more store openings on the long-term radar, with a dozen or so of them likely to be opened within the next year and a half. That should approximately triple the current annual sales figure of $8 million, to $24 million; Growlife's stores tend to generate just a little over a million in annual revenues.

Critics might be quick to suggest this is the "aha" moment for investors who had been faithful and optimistic up until now. This expansion - which will likely come through a combination of acquisitions and organic openings - will cost money, which is potentially dilutive to current shareholders. And truth be told, no matter how PHOT decides to raise those needed funds, it's going to work against the existing shareholder base. This is one of these cases, however, where the upside easily more than outweighs the drawbacks. The nationwide pro-marijuana movement is in place, and Growlife's Urban Garden, Rocky Mountain Hydroponics, and Evergreen Garden Center stores are big hits where they're currently located. Investors aren't going to have to wait long to get a nice return on that investment.

Bottom line: Hindsight is 20/20, but for PHOT, that's a very exciting view. It's going to be even more exciting when traders apply hindsight at this point in 2014, and look at just how much Growlife Inc. accomplished in the last half of 2013 and the first half of the coming year. The stock's very likely to reflect that growth too.

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Tuesday, May 12, 2015

The Deal: U.K. Raises $5.1B Through Lloyds Selldown

LONDON (The Deal) -- The British government's UK Financial Investments Ltd. said Tuesday, Sept. 17, it had sold a 6% stake in Lloyds Banking Group (LYG) for just over over 3.2 billion pounds ($5.1 billion).

Monday's long-awaited accelerated bookbuilding exercise to institutional investors marked UKFI's first selldown of shares in Lloyds, which the previous Labour government had rescued in January 2009 after arranging for it to take over troubled peer HBOS.

Shares changed hands for 75 pence, above the "blended" 73.6 pence which the government is estimated to have paid for its stake, meaning the Conservative/Liberal Democrat coalition government should be able to declare it has made a profit of about 60 million pounds on the transaction. The stock was priced at a 3.1% discount to Monday's close. Before Monday, Lloyds shares had risen about 25% in the past three months and are close to a five-year high.

The sale leaves UKFI, the vehicle which manages state banking holdings accrued during the credit crisis, with 32.7% of Lloyds. UKFI is bound by a 90-day lockup on its remaining shares but the restriction can be waived with the written consent of a majority of the investment banks selling the shares. The state is seen likely to offer a second tranche to a wider pool of investors early next year. "We regard the government's timing as impeccable, and it appears credible to suggest that it could yet be out in full by the election," noted Investec Bank analyst Ian Gordon. The national elections will take place in May 2015 and the coalition government had been eager to start the Lloyds selloff well before. Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne called the sale "another step to repair what went so badly wrong in the economy" under the previous Labour government. Bank of America Merrill Lynch, JPMorgan Cazenove Ltd. and UBS handled the placing. Charlie Foreman and William Rucker of Lazard and Slaughter and May advised on the placing. Lloyds shares in early trading were down 1.56 pence at 75.80 pence. --Written by Laura Board

Sunday, May 10, 2015

Take the Spectrum Pharmaceuticals Hint at Face Value (SPPI)

Eight months ago, Spectrum Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ:SPPI) was a train wreck. Shares had plunged from $12.43 to $7.79 on the heels of bad news, and SPPI wouldn't stop bleeding until it hit a low of $6.92 a few days after the big selloff. That bad news? A warning that its full-year sales (and particularly sales of its cancer drug Fusilev) would be well short of expectations.

As they say though, nothing lasts forever. Not only are Spectrum Pharmaceuticals no longer losing ground, they're making forward progress. Indeed, today's technical leap from SPPI has cleared a huge technical hurdle, leading traders to believe a big rally is inevitable... a rally all the way up from the current price of $9.08 back to the $12.00 area.

That technical hurdle is the 200-day moving average line (green). After a string of higher highs, higher lows, and a recent battle right at it, SPPI has finally made its way above that key long-term average line, signaling that the undertow has decidedly shifted towards bullishness. And as far as a target around $12.00 goes, that's where the upper end of March's gap range can be found. The market hates to leave gaps unfilled, to odds are good that traders will pressure Spectrum Pharmaceuticals, Inc. upward to fill in that span.

Of course, the odds of these technical clues panning out will at least partially be fueled by what the company is doing. Has Spectrum Pharmaceuticals actually become a much better stock than it was in March of this year? Yes, and no.

First and foremost, would-be investors should know that the current price of $9.09 for SPPI makes reasonable sense. The trailing P/S ratio is at 2.43, which is right in line with the market's norm. The trailing P/E ratio is 33.2, which is frothier than the market's average, but not an uncommon valuation within the biotech arena. And, it should be noted that these trailing valuation measures largely incorporate the waning revenue numbers. In other words, the March plunge "right-sized" the stock relative to earnings and revenue.

It's not just a right-sizing that removes the risk of owning Spectrum Pharmaceuticals, Inc. at its current price, however. What investors may want to factor in is the recent launch of Marqibo, for acute lymphoblastic leukemia. It's only approved for a small sliver of that market, mind you, but then again, SPPI is a small company. Winning market share in the ALL market could still be a relative windfall for the $537 million company. Zacks believes Marqibo could generate more than $100 million in annual revenue. Even though Spectrum must split some of that cash with the drug's licensor Hana Biosciences, there's still some revenue at hand, and it's not like Fusilev isn't selling at all. The recent announcement of a new trail - multiple myeloma drug Melphalan - should give the company and traders plenty of fodder to work with too.

Bottom line? This is a case where onlookers may want to trust the market's collective hint via the chart's move above the key 200-day moving average line. Traders are done testing the waters. Now they're starting to pile in, for good reasons.
 
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Tuesday, April 28, 2015

CarMax - A Business Analysis

In a recent interview right here on GuruFocus, Tom Gayner of Markel (MKL) had a few things to say about CarMax (KMX). This prompted me to give the company a closer look. What follows is a business analysis. We will save considerations of stock analysis, such as price, for a later discussion.

I think that is a business that will continue to grow. I don't see any reason why you can't have a Carmax in a lot of towns way beyond what they're talking about right now. I think being the number one dealer, and having the number one market share in used car arena gives you great information on what transaction prices are. Then you work on the process to be as quick and as cost efficient in fixing the car and getting it sold, and have the confidence from customers when you offer warranties on the products. Those factors create a virtuous cycle. The more you do, the more you can do, the better the pricing is, the more the customers like you, the more your brand matters. The company will be around for a good long time. The management has done a very good job of creating the system and executing it.
CarMax was formed as a unit of Circuit City in 1993 and was spun off in 2002. Used-car sales account for about 80% of revenue. Competitors include, but certainly are not limited to, AutoNation (AN) and America's Car-Mart (CRMT) as well as private party sellers.

Five Forces Model Analysis

Threat of New Entrants: High fixed costs for inventory and access to channels of distribution are the largest barriers to entry for the industry. Economies of scale benefit the firm's competence but do not inhibit new entrants.

Intensity of Competition: From individual car owners to established car dealers, the industry is extremely competitive and customers are price-sensitive.

Bargaining Power of Suppliers: Suppliers have the potential capability to integrate forward in order to directly sell to customers.

Bargaining Power of Buyers: Customers are price sensitive, there are no switching costs, ! and options abound.

Threat of Substitutes: Alternatives exist but most people simply need a car.

Value Chain Analysis

Even though the used car industry is extremely competitive and price sensitive, CarMax does well because it has huge economies of scale. With large inventory, the company can spread its operating costs consistently across individual dealerships. CarMax adds value in five categories.

Acquiring Cars - Most of the cars are acquired through trade ins. This creates a high-quality inventory. CarMax offers a "while you wait" appraisal and gives you an offer that is valid for seven days. They also acquire cars through dealership relationships such as with auction houses.

Managing Inventory - This is the company's real competitive advantage. All inventory goes through a standardized internal inspection process. Cars are separated into "CarMax" and "Valumax" categories and sold through channels focusing on different categories of quality and price.

Operating Stores - Management policies guarantee a consistent customer experience across the company and inventory is shared nationwide.

Marketing and Selling - Website searching, "no haggle" price policy, and inspection guarantee are the key components of the companies value added strategy.

Services - The company differentiates itself from smaller dealers by offering financing, appraising, repairs, guarantees and warranties for every sale.

The process of inspecting and guaranteeing the quality of the cars CarMax re‐sells adds considerable value to the company's brand. This type of service is not likely to be found in other dealerships. The amount of resources that go into the value‐chain activity of managing and sorting CarMax's inventory is difficult to implement, and hard to imitate. While CARFAX Reports offer the same assurances of quality, they cannot offer the other benefits such as auto service and repairs, warranties and financing.

SWOT Analysis

Strengths - High quality vehicl! es, large! inventory, no haggle prices, customer friendly salesWeaknesses - High PricesOpportunities - Nationwide expansion, improved customer service, backwards integration to the supplier levelThreats - Overhead costs rise with each new store, poor economy, competition
While a poor economy hurts sales, this cuts both ways. In a truly robust market consumers might choose to purchase new cars, while a moderately slow economy encourages customers to trade down to used cars.

The biggest threat to this company is the "Best Buy" (BBY) problem. CarMax's website and transparent appraisal process make it an excellent place to go kick the tires and make an informed purchasing decision. The problem is that many customers will be making that purchase online from a lower-cost provider. Although CarMax's customer-centric shopping environment and service offerings provide some differentiation, I'm not convinced that price-sensitive customers will be willing to pay for the value-added services that CarMax provides.

According to this report, CarMax cars cost on average $2,000 more than the same car from a private party. The loan services, 7-day money back guarantee, 30-day warranty and guaranteed services after purchase are nice. Will customers continue to pay up for them?

Conclusion

At 2.5% market share CarMax is more than twice as large as the next closest competitor in the used car sales industry. With only 107 stores, CarMax is an enticing regional to national growth story with years of growth still ahead of it. On the downside, CarMax is the Best Buy of used cars — the place you go for a product demo before you buy online for less.

CarMax is a great growth story and it benefits from a network effect. CarMax offers the largest selection of used cars in the country. As this model attracts new purchasers, more of them sell their old cars to the company, which enhances the selection further and leads to still more customers. Longer term I think the price gap between CarMax and private partie! s will sh! rink as economies of scale take effect, thus strengthening the value added proposition.

CarMax has a compelling business model and should be able to grow by adding new stores.
Related links:Right hereTom Gayner

Monday, April 20, 2015

Will Time Warner Continue This Bullish Run?

With shares of Time Warner (NYSE:TWX) trading around $60, is TWX an OUTPERFORM, WAIT AND SEE or STAY AWAY? Let's analyze the stock with the relevant sections of our CHEAT SHEET investing framework:

T = Trends for a Stock’s Movement

Time Warner is a media and entertainment company. The company operates in three reporting segments: Networks, Film, and TV Entertainment and Publishing. Networks consist of television networks and premium pay and basic tier television services and digital media properties. Film and TV Entertainment consists of feature film, television, home video, and videogame production and distribution while Publishing consists of magazine publishing. Through its segments, Time Warner is able to move audiences around the world. With such a large and growing audience, look for Time Warner to continue to drive profits through its media and entertainment.

T = Technicals on the Stock Chart are Strong

Time Warner stock has just about tripled in price since early 2009. Currently, the stock is trading near a multi-year resistance level but any successful clearance of this level can send it soaring higher. Analyzing the price trend and its strength can be done using key simple moving averages. What are the key moving averages? The 50-day (pink), 100-day (blue), and 200-day (yellow) simple moving averages. As seen in the daily price chart below, Time Warner is trading slightly above its rising key averages which signal neutral to bullish price action in the near-term.

TWX

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(Source: Thinkorswim)

Taking a look at the implied volatility (red) and implied volatility skew levels of Time Warner options may help determine if investors are bullish, neutral, or bearish.

Implied Volatility (IV)

30-Day IV Percentile

90-Day IV Percentile

Time Warner Options

22%

56%

52%

What does this mean? This means that investors or traders are buying a significant amount of call and put options contracts, as compared to the last 30 and 90 trading days.

Put IV Skew

Call IV Skew

June Options

Flat

Average

July Options

Flat

Average

As of today, there is an average demand from call buyers or sellers and low demand by put buyers or high demand by put sellers, all neutral to bullish over the next two months. To summarize, investors are buying a significant amount of call and put option contracts and are leaning neutral to bullish over the next two months.

On the next page, let’s take a look at the earnings and revenue growth rates and the conclusion.

E = Earnings Are Increasing Quarter-Over-Quarter

Rising stock prices are often strongly correlated with rising earnings and revenue growth rates. Also, the last four quarterly earnings announcement reactions help gauge investor sentiment on Time Warner’s stock. What do the last four quarterly earnings and revenue growth (Y-O-Y) figures for Time Warner look like and more importantly, how did the markets like these numbers?

2013 Q1

2012 Q4

2012 Q3

2012 Q2

Earnings Growth (Y-O-Y)

27.12%

57.94%

10.26%

-25.42%

Revenue Growth (Y-O-Y)

-0.57%

-0.35%

-3.20%

-4.07%

Earnings Reaction

-0.5%

4.1%

4.17%

1.22%

Time Warner has seen increasing earnings and decreasing revenue figures over the last four quarters. From these figures, the markets have generally been pleased with Time Warner’s recent earnings announcements.

P = Average Relative Performance Versus Peers and Sector

How has Time Warner stock done relative to its peers, News Corporation (NASDAQ:NWS), Walt Disney (NYSE:DIS), Comcast (NASDAQ:CMCSA), and sector?

Time Warner

News Corp.

Walt Disney

Comcast

Sector

Year-to-Date Return

25.44%

27.36%

33.60%

11.83%

19.85%

Time Warner has been an average performer, year-to-date.

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Conclusion

Time Warner provides media and entertainment through a variety of mediums to consumers and businesses all around the world. The stock has tripled its prices in the last four years but is currently trading near a multi-year selling price level. Earnings have been increasing while revenue has decreased over the last four quarters which has kept investors happy. Relative to its strong peers and sector, Time Warner has been an average year-to-date performer. Look for Time Warner to OUTPERFORM.

Tuesday, April 14, 2015

The Evolution From Coins to Coffee, and Beyond

The Motley Fool is on the road in Seattle! Recently we visited Coinstar -- now officially renamed Outerwall  (NASDAQ: OUTR  ) -- to speak with CFO-turned-CEO Scott Di Valerio about the 22-year-old company's well-known coin-cashing machines, as well as its more recent acquisition of Redbox, and future initiatives to expand into other aspects of the automated retail market.

In this brief video segment Scott recounts the company's history, from the founder's frustrated attempt to exchange coins at a bank in the '90s to its partnership with McDonald's and eventual acquisition of Redbox, and where it may all lead in the future. The full version of the interview can be watched here.

A full transcript follows the video.

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Eric Bleeker: Hey, I'm Eric Bleeker, joined here by Scott Di Valerio, CEO of Coinstar or, soon to be "Outerwall," hopefully?

Scott Di Valerio: Yes.

Eric: Just wanted to check in with the metamorphosis of the business, because it is a truly intriguing business. Can you talk about how the company got started and progressed to the point it's at right now?

Di Valerio: You bet. Coinstar started around 22 years ago. Our founder was in grad school and had a whole bunch of coins, and was ready to go out one night and went to the bank to give them the coins so he could go out, and the bank said, "No, you need to roll all your coins," all those kind of good things.

He came back and did his senior thesis on how to get coins back into the marketplace in a more efficient and effective way, and then came back to Seattle and started Coinstar. Again, the rest is kind of history, from that perspective. We started with that Coinstar line of business, and continue to grow off of that.

The company did a number of acquisitions for a period of time, and one of those began a strategic partner with McDonald's, with Redbox. That was about eight years ago. We continued to increase our investment in Redbox over time, and then acquired them outright about four-and-a-half, five years ago and brought them up underneath the Coinstar brand.

We've been very excited about that, the marriage of both the coin line of business as well as the Redbox line of business, and then our ability to go out and continue to innovate in new businesses with Rubi, our coffee business, and we have four or five other small businesses that we're testing out; some that will work, some that won't, but again it's our history to be innovative, inventive, and to continue to try and grow out the business in new ways.

Sunday, April 5, 2015

CAPScall of the Week: Intercept Pharmaceuticals

For years, satirical late-night TV host Stephen Colbert has been running a series on his show called "Better Know a District," which highlights one of the 435 U.S. congressional districts and its representative. While I am no Stephen Colbert, I am brutally inquisitive when it comes to the 5,000-plus listed companies on the U.S. stock exchanges.

That's why I've made it a weekly tradition to examine one seldom-followed company within the Motley Fool CAPS database and make a CAPScall of outperform or underperform on that company.

For this week's round of "Better Know a Stock," I'm going to take a closer look at Intercept Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: ICPT  ) .

What Intercept Pharmaceuticals does
Intercept Pharmaceuticals is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on developing treatments aimed at chronic liver diseases. Specifically, Intercept differentiates itself through the utilization of its proprietary bile acid chemistry. The company's lead compound, known as obeticholic acid, or OCA, recently initiated phase 3 trials for primary biliary cirrhosis and has received orphan drug status from the Food and Drug Administration for this disease, which could ultimately expedite its review process and grant it seven years marketing exclusivity from the date of approval -- assuming it gets approved, of course! OCA is also being tested in a number of other indications.

In Intercept's most recent quarter, the company reported only $405,405 in licensing revenue while racking up a comprehensive loss of $10.5 million. Since inception, Intercept has an accumulated deficit of $128.7 million.

Whom it competes against
The allure of Intercept is that its OCA is angled at treating an aspect of PBC that currently has no FDA-approved treatment.

Geared as a secondary line of treatment, Intercept has geared OCA to snatch up patients who have an inadequate response to, or are unable to take, ursodiol, the only drug currently approved to treat PBC. Ursodiol was originally developed by Actavis (NYSE: ACT  ) (previously Watson Pharmaceuticals) but has since lost its exclusivity, with Lannett (NYSEMKT: LCI  ) gaining FDA approval to market generic versions of the drug in 2008. In the true sense of the word, Intercept has little direct competition as long as ursodiol intolerance exists in some patients.

The only direct competitor is Galectin Pharmaceuticals, a microcap biotechnology company that only received the OK from the FDA to begin human clinical trials for GR-MD-02 in March. That hasn't stopped Aegis Capital from coming down critically on Intercept, though, with Aegis commenting that, "OCA is unlikely to reverse liver fibrosis and that its safety profile may prove inferior to that of Galectin's GR-MD-02." 

The call
After carefully reviewing the prospects for Intercept Pharmaceuticals, I've decided to join the majority and make a CAPScall of underperform on the company.

The primary reason to be skeptical of Intercept is the same reason I'm often skeptical of clinical-phase biotechnology companies: It has no FDA-approved product, and it could be at least two years at the earliest before it does. In the meantime, Intercept has lost $128.7 million in the nearly 11 years since it began its operations and has financed its activities through dilutive secondary offerings. Two weeks ago, the company completed a 1.7 million share offering at $33.01 that helped raise approximately $53.3 million. While great news with the stock hitting new highs, more dilutive offerings should be expected with profitability still years away.

In addition, I have some skepticism surrounding OCA based on the small patient subset in phase 2 trials. Don't get me wrong, the 59-patient pool taking OCA demonstrated incredible results. Primarily, the reduction of alkaline phosphatase (AP) in the liver, an enzyme associated with liver disease progression, of 45% and 38% with the 10mg and 50mg doses compared to 0% with the placebo gives investors encouraging data to nibble on. But, phase 3 trials often bring with them the disappointment of considerably more tame results across a great subset of the population. This phase 3 trial is also going to be geared toward safety and longevity effects, which the phase 2 trial really didn't touch on. I'm not saying OCA has given any indications of being unsafe, but rather than investors are wrongly allotting a premium valuation to Intercept before the data is in.

Unless Intercept is able to hit all of its intended indications with OCA I simply can't see how today's valuation is justified.

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Tuesday, March 31, 2015

How Powerball and Psychology Can Make You a Better Investor

If you weren't the lucky jackpot winner this weekend, don't be too upset. Sure, the Powerball lottery reached a whopping $600 million, the second-largest payout in U.S. lottery history. However, the odds of winning this record pot were about 1 in 175 million. With such a slim probability of winning, it's a wonder that anyone played at all. Yet thousands of people stood in line to purchase Powerball tickets ahead of the weekend draw -- buying around 80% of all possible lotto combinations, according to lottery officials.

With a record Powerball weekend now behind us, let's take a closer look at how understanding the lottery and psychology can make you a better investor.

Behavioral Finance 101
When investing in the stock market, the idea is to buy low and sell high. Yet our psychological biases can derail this truism -- making it harder for us to make smart investment decisions. In John R. Nofsinger's book The Psychology of Investing, the author explains how to identify and avoid such mistakes. Listed below are three of the most common psychological factors that can affect our financial decisions.

1. Overconfidence
Investors who are overconfident tend to trade their positions more frequently and thus underperform the market. "Interestingly, people are more overconfident when they feel they have control over the outcome -- even when this is clearly not the case," according to Nofsinger..

Consider this: Psychologists have found that "people who choose their own lottery numbers believe they have a better chance of winning than people who have numbers given to them at random" says Nofsinger. This means that choice can also give investors the illusion of having control, which in turn leads to overconfidence.

This is important to keep in mind, particularly if you're like me and invest using an online stockbroker, such as TD AMERITRADE. AMERITRADE and other discount brokers are great because they save you loads of money on otherwise costly commission and transaction fees. However, Nofsinger argues that it's easy to become overconfident when using online brokers since you're making your own decisions as to which stocks to buy and sell and when to do so.

2. Anchoring
This is a mistake made by both rookie investors and veterans alike. Too often investors "anchor" their perceived value of a stock to its past trading price -- and as a result missing out on future gains because they were waiting to buy in at the arbitrary price that they first anchored to. Fool analyst Dan Caplinger clearly explains the pits of anchoring in his article "The Huge Mistake Apple Investors are Making."

In the article, he cautions investors to "remember that fundamental events rather than arbitrary milestones are responsible for changes in the intrinsic value of the companies you invest in." Ultimately, investors should focus less on daily movements in stock price and more on the underlying business of the company in question.

3. Risk aversion
The rules of traditional finance have long said that people make rational decisions and are risk-averse. However, buying a lottery ticket directly contradicts this assumption. In fact, if you participated in the latest Powerball festivities, then you took on a risk-to-reward ratio of 1 to more than 175 million -- quite the opposite of risk-averse, if you ask me.

The level of risk you can handle often depends on your past investing experiences. Interestingly, studies show that investors are more likely to buy high-risk stocks after cashing out of a successful position. However, this doesn't make your gamble in the riskier stock more likely to earn you a return.

Why psychology matters
Understanding how these factors influence your investing can help you avoid making careless mistakes in the future. Sure, you may not get a sudden influx of millions of dollars like you would by beating the 1 in 175 million Powerball odds. However, your chances of generating market--beating returns for years on end are firmly within your reach. I'll take those odds any day.

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Valspar Faces a Huge Test This Week

On Tuesday, Valspar (NYSE: VAL  ) will release its latest quarterly results. The key to making smart investment decisions on stocks reporting earnings is to anticipate how they'll do before they announce results, leaving you fully prepared to respond quickly to whatever inevitable surprises arise. That way, you'll be less likely to make an uninformed knee-jerk reaction to news that turns out to be exactly the wrong move.

Valspar is a major paint producer, and with the big rebound in housing prices, the company's stock has risen toward all-time record highs. But can demand truly deliver on the promise the soaring share price reflects? Let's take an early look at what's been happening with Valspar over the past quarter and what we're likely to see in its quarterly report.

Stats on Valspar

Analyst EPS Estimate

$0.90

Change From Year-Ago EPS

7.1%

Revenue Estimate

$1.05 billion

Change From Year-Ago Revenue

1.8%

Earnings Beats in Past 4 Quarters

3

Source: Yahoo! Finance.

Can Valspar's earnings rebound this quarter?
In recent months, analysts have gotten less optimistic about Valspar's earnings prospects, cutting more than a dime per share from their earnings-per-share consensus on the just-ended quarter as well as the full 2013 fiscal year. But the share price hasn't gotten hurt a bit, having rebounded to recover all of its losses following its previous quarterly report and an extra gain of about 1% since early February.

Players throughout the paint industry have seen their prospects rise in light of the housing recovery. In its most recent report, Sherwin-Williams (NYSE: SHW  ) posted record profits and sales for its first quarter, as net income rose 17%. Sherwin projected that revenue growth would likely accelerate during the rest of the year. Fellow competitor PPG Industries (NYSE: PPG  ) also managed to top earnings estimates in its quarterly report last month, although its sales didn't produce the increase that analysts had expected to see.

Yet Valspar hasn't taken improvement in the housing industry for granted. Early last month, the company announced an expanded paint program with home-improvement retailer Lowe's (NYSE: LOW  ) targeted at professional painters, seeking to compete both on price and service in providing custom tinting, color matching, and other useful services. That adds on to the new strategic relationship it implemented in January with Ace Hardware, in which Valspar bought Ace's paint-manufacturing assets and agreed to supply Ace-branded paint as well as its own brands for the hardware chain.

The big challenge for Valspar lies in its overseas markets. In last quarter's report, Valspar said that it continued to see weakness in demand from its international business, citing it as one of the main reasons for its cutting a nickel off its earnings guidance for the year. Still, the company expects to introduce paint to more than 300 locations in the U.K. and Ireland this year and generally sees international markets as promising.

In Valspar's quarterly report, be sure to compare the company's results against Sherwin-Williams and PPG as well as Valspar's own previous quarter. After having disappointed investors last quarter, Valspar needs to demonstrate its ability to move forward and take advantage of improving conditions in the industry.

The best investing approach is to choose great companies and stick with them for the long term. The Motley Fool's free report "3 Stocks That Will Help You Retire Rich" names stocks that could help you build long-term wealth and retire well, along with some winning wealth-building strategies that every investor should be aware of. Click here now to keep reading.

Click here to add Valspar to My Watchlist, which can find all of our Foolish analysis on it and all your other stocks.

Sunday, March 29, 2015

Yahoo! Designs Mail App for Tablet Users

Yahoo!  (NASDAQ: YHOO  ) has launched a full-screen Yahoo! Mail App designed specifically for iPad and Android tablets. 

Yahoo! says it has optimized the app to help users get through their emails quickly. Perhaps the biggest change is that users can simply swipe to delete, star, or move their emails. 

Of course, there are features that mimic the online experience. For example, the Yahoo! Mail app lets users group emails by sender. 

This announcement comes after CEO Marissa Mayer announced a newer version of Yahoo! Mail back in December. At that time, the company also noted that it was helping customers get through emails faster by creating a "consistent look and feel across devices," regardless of whether they were on the the Web or using a Windows, Android, or iOS product.

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Friday, March 27, 2015

Can Merck Field a Psoriasis Blockbuster?

Targeting psoriasis, rheumatoid arthritis, and other immune diseases has created some massive markets over the last decade. How massive? The market was sized up at an estimated $72.2 billion in 2010, according to BCC Research -- and growth isn't slowing any time soon. That's good news for patients, too. The pharmaceutical industry's fascination with an improved understanding of biologics has led to dozens of drugs that treat the underlying causes of diseases, rather than small molecules of years past that only treated symptoms.  

Few companies haven't joined the rush to develop biologics and novel small molecule classes to treat immune diseases. While some companies got a big head start over the field, next-generation therapies are being developed in pipelines across the industry. Merck (NYSE: MRK  ) is one company looking to capitalize on the trend and will shortly begin phase 3 trials on its leading psoriasis biologic therapy candidate. Going by the catchy pipeline name of MK-3222, the drug has huge potential if it ever receives approval from the Food and Drug Administration, or FDA.

About that competition I mentioned...
Older therapies aren't exactly losing their grasp on the markets they took by storm just yet. A quick look at 2012 sales data from the first three biologics approved that work by inhibiting the TNF-alpha protein -- integral to immune system communication -- shows exactly that.

Company

Drug

2012 Sales

Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ  )

Remicade

$6,139 million

Amgen (NASDAQ: AMGN  )

Enbrel

$4,236 million

AbbVie

Humira

$9,265 million

Source: Company 2012 earnings.       

Aside from the big three, there are newer therapies on the market and in development that target TNF-alpha indirectly by inhibiting the proteins further upstream in the cellular communication chain. For instance, Johnson & Johnson's Stelara binds to interleukin 23 and interleukin 12, which regulate TNF-alpha production. The therapy has been approved for psoriasis and is in late stage trials for Crohn's disease and ankylosing spondylitis.

The biggest advantage for new therapies may lie in dosing schedules. Consider that during a 12-week study comparing Stelara to Enbrel, the TNF-alpha inhibitor was administered twice a week for the length of the study, while the drug candidate was administered just twice over the same period. Stelara still managed to beat Enbrel in high-dose groups with 71% and 49% of patients responding, respectively.   

Is it too late for Merck?
The dosing regimen of Stelara raises the bar significantly for all therapies. However, Merck's MK-3222 has essentially the same requirements; administered twice in the first four weeks of treatment and then once every 12 weeks thereafter. The two therapies work in slightly different ways, too, with MK-3222 targeting a different region of interleukin 23 while sparing interleukin 12. In theory, that could make the drug less destructive to a patient's immune system, which is the biggest drawback to many immune disease therapies.  

Two other biologics mirroring this mechanism of action are in development across big pharma. Johnson & Johnson's CNTO 136 (sirukumab) for rheumatoid arthritis is in phase 3 trials that are expected to be completed in early 2016. Amgen's AMG 139 for Crohn's disease is in a phase 1 trial that will wrap up in September. The good news from a competition standpoint is that each drug is targeting a different immune disease. The distant bad news is that expanding indications for each drug could be met with muted enthusiasm given the established competition that may exist (should each gain approval).      

Nonetheless, MK-3222 will be a first-in-class psoriasis option should it gain approval. It will be interesting to see how, if at all, the therapy improves upon Stelara by sparing interleukin 12. Several safety concerns have been specifically linked to agents that bind to the protein, according to Dr. Kim Papp of Probity Medical Research. Such therapies could potentially be a big step forward for patients and the industry.  

Can Merck beat the patent cliff?
Merck has a big hole to fill with Singulair expected to lose billions in sales in 2013 and new safety questions arising around its best-selling pharmaceutical Januvia. Therefore, it will be critical for new drugs to successfully make it out of the pipeline and onto the market. With that in mind, is Merck still a solid dividend play, or should investors be looking elsewhere? In a new premium research report on Merck, The Fool tackles all of the company's moving parts, its major market opportunities, and reasons to both buy and sell. To find out more click here to claim your copy today.