Monday, August 25, 2014

Benzinga Weekly Preview: Putin And Poroshenko Set To Discuss A Peace Plan

Related BBY Yellen's Speech Not Enough To Keep Dow, S&P 500 In Positive Territory GameStop Up As Q2 Earnings Surpass Estimates on Higher Sales When Rate Hikes Come, They Will Ripple Across U.S. Economy (Fox Business) Related DG Yellen's Speech Not Enough To Keep Dow, S&P 500 In Positive Territory FBR Says Dollar Tree To Meet Or Beat Dollar General On Family Dollar Family Dollar Rejects Dollar General Proposal (Fox Business)

Ukraine will be in the spotlight next week as Russian President Vladimir Putin finally meets with his Ukrainian counterpart, Petro Poroshenko.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel will also travel to Ukraine to help find a lasting solution to end the nation’s ongoing crisis. With Russia and the West caught up in a sanctions war over the situation in Ukraine, the talks are an important milestone in Ukraine’s crisis.

Key Earnings Reports

Next week investors will be waiting for several key earnings reports including Best Buy (NYSE: BBY), Dollar General (NYSE: DG), Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE: ANF) and Tiffany & Co (NYSE: TIF).

Best Buy

Best Buy is expected to report second quarter EPS of $0.32 on revenue of $9.01 billion, compared to last year’s EPS of $0.32 on revenue of $9.30 billion.

On August 16, S&P Capital IQ gave Best Buy a Hold rating with a $25.00 price target. The analyst team at S&P sees mixed results as the company attempts to compete with its online counterparts.

“We see BBY taking action to improve service and reduce costs in an attempt to compete profitably with Internet retailers as the consumer electronics category migrates online. We expect mixed results in light of an intensely competitive environment, and we think necessary price investments and ongoing deflation in certain categories will limit the beneficial impact of effective cost management.”

On June 11, Credit Suisse gave Best Buy an Outperform rating with a $40.00 price target. The analysts at Credit Suisse see the company thriving due to its inventive business strategy.

“One of the concerns about brick and mortar retailing is that store rent, an essentially fixed cost in the near term, is similar to a ball and chain around a retailer's neck, a cost that becomes heavier as traffic and productivity decline. Yet one retailer, Best Buy, has figured out how to turn this into an advantage by renting out the space to its primary suppliers, not only reducing rent and employee costs, but creating a better shopping experience for customers. Yesterday at Best Buy's annual meeting, Hubert Joly commented on the success of the store-within-a-store and strongly indicated that we will see more of this. We view this as one of the more insightful changes this superb management team has instituted at BBY.”

On August 14, Merrill Lynch gave Best Buy a Buy rating with a $36.00 price objective, noting that upcoming product cycles will likely benefit the company in the near term.

“We forecast 2Q EPS of $0.28 versus $0.32 last year and consensus of $0.32. Our estimate could be conservative and we note that continued outperformance in expense reduction could offset soft comps. While 2Q and 3Q will likely be impacted by a relative lack of new products coming to market, industry trends should fare much better in 4Q and into 2015. In particular, we expect a TV cycle driven by 4K sets (which boast 4x the resolution of HD TVs). BBY stands to benefit from meaningful product cycles in TV’s, gaming and appliances.”

Dollar General Corporation

Dollar General is expected to report second quarter EPS of $0.83 on revenue of $4.77 billion, compared to last year’s EPS of $0.77 on revenue of $4.39 billion.

On August 21, S&P Capital IQ gave Dollar General a Sell rating with a $59.00 target price, noting that the company’s customer base has remained conservative about spending.

“We believe DG will face more intense competition in FY 15 after its closest peer Family Dollar (FDO 66, Sell) reported negative comparable store sales growth during the holiday and winter seasons and a negative outlook for the fiscal year. Additionally, we believe the company's core low-income customer remains under intense economic pressure due to a weak job growth market and following cuts to Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program benefits.”

On August 18, Credit Suisse upgraded its rating for Dollar General from Neutral to Outperform with a $74.00 price target shortly following the company’s bid to buy Family Dollar.

“We are upgrading DG to Outperform from Neutral and raising our target price to $74 from $59 to reflect the company's announced bid for FDO. While not yet accepted by FDO and the eventual purchase price could be higher if DLTR counters, we believe there is a strong likelihood of DG eventually winning the asset now that their interest has been confirmed and see the combination creating significant value for shareholders. DG clearly has the ability to pay much more than DLTR, as we estimate synergies could approach $1 billion in cost and revenue benefits and see accretion at $1-2 per share. We also believe this combination makes much better strategic sense than a DLTR/FDO deal and it would clearly provide the next leg to what has already been one of the most attractive investments in retail.”

On August 18, Merrill Lynch gave Dollar General a Buy rating with a $73.00 price objective, taking into consideration the company’s proposal to acquire Family Dollar.

“Dollar General announced today a proposal to acquire Family Dollar for $78.50 per share in cash, in a transaction valued at $9.7bn on an EBITDA multiple of 11.6x. The offer is greater than the $74.50 offer by DLTR announced on July 28th, 2014and would be an all cash deal vs. DLTR’s cash/stock offer. DG stated it has already secured committed financing of $12.3bn including a revolver, term loan, and notes. The financing would also include the $305mn termination fee payable to DLTR. DG’s adjusted debt to EBITDAR would be 5.5x and the company believes it could return to investment grade within 3 years. The company estimates that the proposed transaction would be low DD accretive to earnings in the first year.”

Abercrombie & Fitch Company

Abercrombie & Fitch is expected to report second quarter EPS of $0.11 on revenue of $909.22 million, compared to last year’s EPS of $0.14 on revenue of $945.70 million.

On August 16, S&P Capital IQ gave Abercrombie & Fitch a Hold rating with a $42.00 price target, noting that the company’s shares are currently quite fairly valued.

“We view the shares as fairly valued at recent levels, as ANF navigates a transition period amid intensifying competition in the U.S. from fast-fashion retailers such as Forever 21 and H&M. We think it is particularly crucial for the company to improve the fashion of its female business. While we think ANF needs to invest more in differentiated fashions and store remodels to regain a competitive edge, we look for expense cuts and ongoing rationalization of ANF's U.S. store base to support higher sales productivity and margin recovery in FY 2015. Also, we are encouraged by a continued strong growth trajectory for the DTC business.”

On July 31, Merrill Lynch gave Abercrombie & Fitch a Neutral rating, noting that the company’s clothing has finally caught up with current fashion trends.

“Abercrombie has been slow to react to fashion changes in the women’s department and we view the new Fall assortment as the biggest change that we have seen at the brand in years. The addition of the color black, a more feminine aesthetic and a lack of logo were the biggest changes. The new fashion was priced higher than fast fashion competition, but we expect it to be put on promotion at strategic times. Still, we think the new look will attract some interest.”

Tiffany & Co

Tiffany & Co is expected to report second quarter EPS of $0.85 on revenue of $987.86 million, compared to last year’s EPS of $0.83 on revenue of $925.88 million.

On August 16, S&P capital IQ gave Tiffany & Co a Hold rating with a $100.00 target price, noting that the company’s shares are currently fairly valued.

“We view the shares as reasonably valued at recent levels. In the quarter ended April 30, 2014, worldwide same-store sales (on a constant currency basis) increased 11%. By region, same-store sales rose 8% in the Americas, 30% in Japan, 18% in the U.A.E., and 10% in Asia-Pacific, but were down 35 in Europe. Through retail, product and marketing investments, we see TIF successfully growing its global high end customer base, which is supporting strong sales of statement, fine and solitaire jewelry (i.e., higher priced jewelry with diamonds and/ or other gemstones).We also believe the company is attracting new customers through its lower priced fashion jewelry assortment.”

On August 13, Credit Suisse gave Tiffany & Co an Outperform rating with a $104.00 price target, pointing out the company could face some headwinds from Asia.

“We are concerned about broad-based evidence of slowing demand trends in APAC, particularly soft Macau casino revenue, weak Hong Kong watch and jewelry sales, tepid Swiss watch exports, and softness in fine wine and liquor sales. Perhaps the clearest indicator lies in watch and jewelry sales in Hong Kong, where April/May/June 2014 sales are down an average of 30% Y/Y. Some of this decline is due to lapping of heavy gold buying on favorable pricing last year, but we see potential for spillover into high-end jewelry and watch purchasing. Swiss watch exports also remain weak, with 2Q sales up a modest 1.4% (up 2% in Hong Kong) versus 4.1% growth in 1Q (7% Hong Kong).”

On July 2, Merrill Lunch gave Tiffany & Co a Buy rating with a $115 price objective, saying that improving consumer spending in the U.S. could have positive effects on the company.

“Our Price Objective for Tiffany of $115 is based on a P/E multiple of 24x our F2015 EPS estimate. This represents a premium to the luxury peer group average of 19x. We think a premium is justified given reaccelerating US trends, an immature business in key regions where other luxury companies are struggling to grow, and the outsized growth potential of watches and fashion jewelry versus peers. Risks to our PO: further deceleration in Asian and European comps, Yen headwinds, commodity cost increases, deteriorating health of the global luxury consumer.”

Economic Releases

Next week will be a busy week for economic releases with the U.S. set to put out several important reports. Housing data is expected to show a rebound in new home sales, but home prices likely increased more slowly.

Daily Schedule

Monday

Earnings Releases Expected:  CNinsure (NASDAQ: CISG), Adept Technology (NASDAQ: ADEP), OSI Systems (NASDAQ: OSIS) Economic Releases Expected: U.S. new home sales, U.S. services PMI, German Ifo business climate index

Tuesday

Earnings Expected: Bob Evans Farms (NASDAQ: BOBE), Analog Devices (NASDAQ: ADI), TiVo (NASDAQ: TIVO), Best Buy (NYSE: BBY), DSW (NYSE: DSW) Sanderson Farms (NASDAQ: SAFM) Economic Releases Expected: U.S. consumer confidence, U.S. house price index, U.S. Redbook, U.S. durable goods orders

Wednesday

Earnings Expected: The Wet Seal (NASDAQ: WTSL), Express (NYSE: EXPR), Tiffany & Co (NYSE: TIF) Economic Releases Expected:  U.S. oil inventory data, German consumer climate, Italian consumer confidence

Thursday

Earnings Expected From: Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE: ANF), Dollar General (NYSE: DG), Genesco (NYSE: GCO), Constellium NV (NYSE: CSTM) Economic Releases Expected:  Japanese retail sales, Japanese industrial production, Japanese unemployment rate, British consumer confidence, U.S. GDP, eurozone consumer confidence, German unemployment rate, Spanish GDP

Friday

Earnings Expected From: Noodles & Co. (NASDAQ: NDLS) Economic Releases Expected: U.S. Consumer Sentiment, Canadian GDP, Italian GDP, Italian CPI, eurozone unemployment rate, eurozone CPI, German retail sales, Spanish retail sales, Japanese housing starts

Posted-In: Earnings News Guidance Previews Economics Pre-Market Outlook Markets

Tuesday, August 19, 2014

5 Rocket Stocks to Buy for Gains This Week

BALTIMORE (Stockpickr) -- The big bounce in the S&P 500 followed through last week, ending the big index 1.2% higher on Friday than it started Monday morning. And this week, there's a lot more upside potential baked into stocks.

According to statistical data from EidoSearch, the 70% of market instances with price action similar to that in the S&P right now ended higher, putting the big index's upside potential almost another point higher for the end of the week.

Read More: Warren Buffett's Top 10 Dividend Stocks

That's good news for stock market bulls in August.

But to make the most of the continued rally in stocks, it makes sense to focus on one subset that's predisposed to outperform the market averages. I'm talking about the "Rocket Stocks." Today, we're looking at five fresh Rocket names for a new week.

For the uninitiated, "Rocket Stocks" are our list of companies with short-term gain catalysts and longer-term growth potential. To find them, I run a weekly quantitative screen that seeks out stocks with a combination of analyst upgrades and positive earnings surprises to identify rising analyst expectations, a bullish signal for stocks in any market. After all, where analysts' expectations are increasing, institutional cash often follows. In the last 262 weeks, our weekly list of five plays has outperformed the S&P 500's record run by 79.66%.

Without further ado, here's a look at this week's Rocket Stocks.

Read More: 10 Stocks George Soros Is Buying

Goldman Sachs

Up first is legacy investment bank Goldman Sachs (GS), a name that doesn't need much in the way of introduction. Goldman has an ironclad reputation as a well-connected investment bank -- for better or worse. And in 2014, with M&A and IPO deal volumes ramping up in the second half of the year, Goldman looks well-positioned to benefit from the rising tide in its core business.

Investment banking isn't Goldman's only business -- the firm also has thriving wealth management and institutional client services units, offering an integrated model that's stuffed with cross-selling opportunities. One major change in recent years was the decision to reorganize as a bank holding company during the Great Recession, a move that the firm needed to make to stay afloat. That reorganization comes at the cost of returns; with increased regulatory scrutiny, investors shouldn't expect the same levels of profitability that the firm recognized in years' past.

Historically, Goldman's management teams have been good stewards of shareholder value. And even though the firm's 1.3% dividend yield isn't earth-shattering, it's on the high side for a large-cap financial today. Look for record-high underwriting revenues to help propel upside in the third quarter.

Goldman Sachs shows up on a list of Warren Buffett's Top 25 Stocks for 2014.

Read More: 10 Stocks Carl Icahn Loves in 2014

Simon Property Group

2014 has been a strong year for shareholders in Simon Property Group (SPG). Since the calendar flipped to January, shares of this $52 billion real estate investment trust have rallied more than 11%. A lot of that performance came from the flight to yield investors experienced earlier in the year. Now SPG looks like it's in store for more upside ahead.

Simon Property Group is the largest REIT in the U.S. The firm's properties are primarily retail, with U.S. regional malls and outlet centers making up approximately 90% of net lease income. Simon also owns a 29% stake in Klepierre, which gives the firm exposure to European retail properties as well. Because of its size, SPG has access to a large amount of cheap capital that it can use tackle deals that smaller rivals can't handle alone.

Because of the typical deal characteristics in the retail real estate business, SPG also gets added exposure to retail sales (mall lease agreements typically include a cut of store revenue). That's an attractive sweetener in an environment where consumer spending continues to be on the upswing. The decision to spin off its smaller assets into Washington Prime Group (WPG) is a positive for SPG shareholders as well -- it puts smaller, less productive assets in a separate basket, leaving new SPG with higher revenues per square foot than its predecessor.

With rising analyst sentiment in SPG this week, we're betting on shares.

Read More: 7 Stocks Warren Buffett Is Selling in 2014

Delta Air Lines

There's no two ways about it: Shares of Delta Air Lines (DAL) have been going full throttle in 2014. Since the first trading session of the year, this legacy air carrier has seen its shares appreciate by more than 40%. And despite some corrective action in the last couple of months, this Rocket Stock is looking buyable again in August.

Delta is one of the largest airlines in the world, with more than 720 aircraft serving some mainline 247 destinations all over the world. Like other legacy carriers, Delta has some big benefits from its mainline/regional airline partnerships. It's able to peel the least attractive routes off of its map and let smaller regionals operate them under the Delta banner. Delta is squarely the best-positioned of the legacy carriers, and while discount carriers still pose considerable risks to Delta's model, the fact remains that Delta is able to service more highly competitive routes than domestic rivals, and that should keep high-revenue frequent fliers in the firm's seats.

The cyclical nature of the airline business has been a problem for investors in the past, but with cyclical lows already set, Delta looks ready to take advantage of a bullish industry trend here. Fat margins and upside barriers to oil prices in the near-term should help Delta throw off some big profits in the second half of the year.

Read More: 5 Stocks Triggering Big Breakout Trades

Estee Lauder

Fragrance and cosmetics maker Estee Lauder (EL) is another name that's benefitting from looser consumer purse strings these days. Despite a slow start to this year, EL has rallied more than 12% in the trailing six months, making up for lost time in the process. Besides the firm's namesake label, Estee Lauder's brands include popular names like Clinique in addition to mall staples M-A-C and Origins.

Estee Lauder's product lineup skews high-end, a fact that has historically generates net profit margins around 10%. Because consumers tend to be sticky and less price sensitive about cosmetics, EL's huge 25% share of the world's premium cosmetics market comes with some big scale advantages. So does EL's willingness to look overseas for growth – today, more than 60% of sales are generated overseas, and more than 30% of that revenue is generated in emerging markets. As burgeoning middle class populations look to trade up to premium cosmetics brands, Estee Lauder is already entrenched in those markets.

Financially speaking, EL is in solid shape. The firm's $1.3 billion debt load is more than offset by $1.5 billion in cash. That balance sheet position leaves more than enough dry powder for growth in the years ahead. Buying pressure from bullish earnings on Friday could spill over into this week.

Read More: Sell These 5 Toxic Stocks Before It's Too Late

Ball

Even if you've never heard the name before, there's a very good chance that you've come face to face (literally) with some of Ball's (BLL) products. That's because the Broomfield, Colorado-based company is the world's largest metal can manufacturer, cranking out approximately 70 billion beverage cans annual. Ball also manufactures metal food and household product packaging, and aerospace products.

Beverage cans are Ball's bread and butter. The division contributes three-quarters of the firm's annual revenues, and punches out cans for household names such as Coca-Cola Enterprises (CCE), PepsiCo (PEP), MillerCoors and Anheuser-Busch InBev (BUD). All told, Ball controls nearly half of the beverage can industry, a scale factor that gives the firm the ability to spread manufacturing around the world and keep production costs low for its individual customers. And even though Ball's use of aluminum would normally leave a firm beholden to commodity prices, the company's long-term contracts and use of hedging essentially negates price swings in its inputs.

Two key areas where Ball is generating growing revenues are China, where the firm has become the largest player in the beverage can market, and aerospace, where BLL earns approximately 10% of its total revenues producing hardware for the U.S. government. The firm's aggressive approach to revenue diversification should help drive growth in the years ahead.

-- Written by Jonas Elmerraji in Baltimore.


RELATED LINKS:



>>Must-See Charts: 5 Big Stocks to Trade for Gains



>>Triple Your Gains With These 5 Cash-Rich Companies



>>Warren Buffett's Top 10 Dividend Stocks

Follow Stockpickr on Twitter and become a fan on Facebook.

At the time of publication, author had no positions in the names mentioned.

Jonas Elmerraji, CMT, is a senior market analyst at Agora Financial in Baltimore and a contributor to

TheStreet. Before that, he managed a portfolio of stocks for an investment advisory returned 15% in 2008. He has been featured in Forbes , Investor's Business Daily, and on CNBC.com. Jonas holds a degree in financial economics from UMBC and the Chartered Market Technician designation.

Follow Jonas on Twitter @JonasElmerraji


Thursday, August 14, 2014

Lightstream (LTS) – When The Market Freaks Out, Rejoice

Lightstream (which I've covered in-depth here and here) reported results last week (here). Included in those results was a downward revision to 2014 production volume, from 44k boe / d to 42k boe / d. The market did not take too kindly to the Company's lower forecast, sending the stock down 10%.

But the market isn't paying attention to the right things. And investors that know better should rejoice because acquiring ownership in LTS just became a lot cheaper. It's a mantra that needs to be hung on every investor's wall:

When the market freaks out and you know better, rejoice.

To the informed investors of Lightstream, this is what matters:

Sustainability should get to 100% or better this year. Base decline continues to meet plans and will come in at 26% – 29% for the full year. Debt is down to $1.89BN. On Swan Hills – the problem area that sent forecasted production volume lower – the wells are still good oil wells. 7 wells are collectively producing 1,450 boe / d instead of 2,000 boe / d. Management noticed the deviation from expectations and immediately pushed pause to figure out why. This is what every prudent business owner should do.

What's interesting – and a point the market has clearly ignored – is that funds flow (operating cash flow after interest expense) is still expected to meet guidance. I repeat: there was no change to projected cash flow.

Looking at the Company's new guidance, FCF is expected to be $85MM – $165MM. To get to sustainability, take out the approx. $95MM in 2014 dividends. The midpoint implies $30MM in cash buildup – that's after CapEx, interest and all dividends. This means that the market's biggest concern about Lightstream – the sustainability of their business model – is no longer a concern. The inflection point of sustainability has arrived. And that is what matters.

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Wednesday, August 13, 2014

Barclays Sees S&P 500 at 1,975 in 2014; 2,100 in 2015

The torrid rise in margin debt has everyone talking these days. Why? Bears take it as a sign that the the stock market is ripe for a correction.

Barclays U.S. Equity Strategist Jonathan Glionna isn't waving a red flag.

In our opinion, a sharp increase in the use of margin debt in relation to the size of the market is a warning sign, but the steady increase seen over the past five years is not…margin debt in relation to market capitalization has been steadily increasing since the early 1990s. We attribute this to greater participation from leveraged investors in the market during the past 25 years and believe it is a structural shift higher…

Granted, he isn't expecting big returns anytime soon. Glionna's sees the S&P 500 rising at a pace in line with profit growth. That puts the index at 1,975 in 2014 and 2,100 in 2015, up 9% and 8% respectively.

Looking for better returns? That will require better revenue growth, which Glionna calls "The missing ingredient." He writes:

…the recent price increase of the S&P 500 has been justified by expanding margins, active share repurchases, and a reduction in systemic risk premiums, high revenue growth must emerge for the market to re-rate higher once again…top-line growth is poor. Sales growth has been less than 3% and we believe it will remain subdued because of weak domestic economic growth and an inability to restart last cycle's growth engine: international sales. The last time the S&P 500's price-to-sales ratio was higher than it is now, sales were growing at 7%.

For the S&P 500, Glionna sees profit per share rising 7% this year to $107 and gaining another 8% in 2015 to $116.

As for recommendations, Glionna is at Overweight on financials, energy, technology and industrials, but Underweight on consumer staples and health care.

Saturday, August 9, 2014

Can Apple Halt Its Eroding Market Share?

Apple Apple is rapidly losing market share — and that might be fine if it had not also lost its ability to innovate.

By innovate I mean gaining share in a big market in which Apple previously did not compete. Apple innovated with the iPod in the MP3 player market; with the iPhone in the smartphone market; and finally with the iPad in the tablet market. Apple was able to accomplish this due to four capabilities — product design, ecosystem building (iTunes and App store), marketing, and product supply — that it used to grab growth opportunities.

Sure these products follow fairly traditional patterns of rapid growth, followed by maturity and decline. But prior to 2011, Apple was able to come up with a new product that would offset the maturity of the older ones.

Apple is starting to lose market share in two of its biggest product areas — iPhones and iPads — whose markets are maturing.

Smartphones are not exactly a mature industry but their growth rates are slowing. Strategy Analytics reported that global smartphone shipments reached 295 million units in the second quarter of 2014 — up 27% from the year before (but 2013 shipments rose a whopping 47%).

Meanwhile Google Google Android operating system captured a new record of 85% share — at the expense of BlackBerry, Apple iOS (Apple iOS lost one point of share to Android  due to its weak lower-end product), and Microsoft Microsoft Windows Phone.

Strategy Analytics analyst Linda Sui told eWeek that Apple remains the leader but its volume is below that of Samsung and LG. Noted Sui: "In higher end segment, Apple is still the leader but volume is much lower than Android in mass market. Samsung and LG are the top two Android players in premium tier segment, but I don't think they can challenge Apple's position in this segment in the short term."

But Apple is taking steps to reverse this market share slippage. Re/Code reported that on September 9 Apple is expected to launch "two large-screen iPhones, one with a 4.7-inch display and another with a 5.5-inch display, according to people familiar with the matter. [Apple] is asking suppliers to manufacture between 70 million and 80 million units combined of the new iPhones — which are larger than the current models with a display measuring 4-inches diagonally."

Apple's tablet decline has been particularly precipitous. According to IDC, Apple's tablet market share has plunged fast — from 60% in the second quarter of 2012 to 26.9% in the second quarter of 2014. Meanwhile, Samsung has gained 10 percentage points.

But the bloom may be off the rose of the tablet market. NPD DisplaySearch reported in early July that for the first time tablet sales had fallen between 2013 and 2014. Moreover, Apple's 8% decline in iPad unit sales to 13.3 million units is consistent with the idea that at 20% – IDC has vastly over-estimated 2014 tablet market growth.

Can Apple halt this decline? During Apple's July 22 conference call for its third-quarter earnings report, CEO Tim Cook answered Bill Schope of Goldman Sachs's question about sources of future iPad growth with an oracular pronouncement: "We feel that there is significant innovation that can be brought."

It sounds like that means investors can hurry up and wait. John Brownlee at Cult of Mac concluded that "the earliest we can expect a radical iPad Air redesign is 2015."

Smart phones and tablets are maturing. Can Apple find a big new market from which to source faster growth?

This returns me to where I started: the definition of innovation. What Cook appears to mean is a tweaking of product features. What Apple used to mean by innovation is creating a big new profit pool by taking share of  a huge market where it was previously not a player.

In that sense of innovation, investors may have to wait much longer than 2015 for Apple to halt its eroding market share.

Sunday, August 3, 2014

This Is Just What Debt-Laden Students Need: More Credit

This is amazing. If you thought there was only one component to the gargantuan student debt scam, think again.

Because here's the thing: If you're about to become a college student, if you're already a college student, or if you're simply in debt and need more credit and plan on becoming a student again, you're in luck.

Financial services giants Discover Financial Services Inc. (NYSE: DFS), Capital One Financial Corp. (NYSE: COF), Bank of America Corp. (NYSE: BAC), Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C), and U.S. Bancorp (NYSE: USB), to name a few players in the student credit game, are bending over backward for you.

The folks at Discover want you to "Get the card for college and beyond." They've named and registered it as "Discover It Chrome for Students" because, after all, they're "Looking out for you."

Student DebtBut they aren't the only do-gooders looking out for you. You can also apply for the Capital One Journey Student Rewards Credit Card, the Bank of Americard for Students, the U.S. Bank College Visa Card, or the Citi Dividend Platinum Select Visa Card for College Students.

Heck, why not apply for all of them?

But wait.

Before switching screens to sign your life away - I mean, fill those applications out - let me tell you a little more about this latest attempt to take all your money.

Understanding Your Needs (i.e., You Need More Student Debt)

Don't worry. The credit card companies know all about your student loans - or the loans your parents took out for you. Or that you are parents who have more to learn because you don't have the job skills you need to pay down the debt load you already carry. They know that, after all the money you've already borrowed, you still need more.

They get it.

You need to buy books, food, and gas to take you to and from campus. Or maybe you just want to throw down a card for beers and wings for you and your friends at the pub. They get it.

Not all financial service companies get you. Some get you more.

Just take a look at how much the good people at Discover get you:

They want to incentivize private student loan borrowers earning a 3.0 or better with an inspiring 1% cash-back reward on what you spend. That's Chrome! It's better than gold.

To be fair, these are hardworking students. No not "hardworking" as in having a job, but "hardworking" as in debt-building future indentured slavebots.

But that's just the beginning, and it gets better. If you don't have a 3.0 and are just an average idiot, you are rewarded with 2% cash back when you use your Chrome card for gas or at restaurants, up to $1,000 in combined purchases each quarter.

And the 1% cash back for you smart kids, well, there's no cap - so spend, Smarty, spend!

To keep earning all that cash, you just have to stay in school and keep up that 3.0. Who knew?

Oh, you're thinking there must be a catch. No, there isn't. It's all good.

It's academic.

There's no annual fee. Paying late won't raise your annual percentage rate (APR). There's no late fee (on your first late payment). There's no over-limit fee. There's no foreign transaction fee... and you thought that semester abroad was out of reach.

You have a $0 Fraud Liability Guarantee, so you're never responsible if you lose your card at a rave. The card is accepted at 9 million merchants nationwide. And because you're up studying late, you can pay your bill up to midnight the day it's due, by phone or online.

You are online, aren't you? No?

Then use the card to buy a computer - duh.

Why am I singling out Discover? No, the folks there didn't pay me to advertise their student cards.

It's just that on their website they compare how they stack up to Capital One, Bank of America, U.S. Bank, and Citi. And, for now, they've got those slackers beat. But I expect the dark horses will run harder when the school year kicks in shortly.

Speaking of coveted student borrowers, Discover Chief Executive Officer David Nelms recently said in an interview with American Banker, "They're going to grow into more substantial relationships over time. And so we've launched a product that is a little more targeted toward them."

If you're a student, check your back to see if you have a target there. If you do, welcome to the already overcrowded club of financial services servants.

Oh, and about that interest rate, it's only 19.8%. And you didn't believe me that there was no catch.

More from Shah on Student Debt: Outstanding U.S. student loan debt exceeds $1.2 trillion, and now those who owe are preyed upon by another parasitic source. Here's how American kids and their parents are being swindled out of billions of dollars...

Saturday, August 2, 2014

P&G’s New Plan: Keep It Simple Stupid

What is Procter & Gamble (PG) throwing out?

For the last three years, P&G has labored to cut costs and sharpen its focus on its biggest brands in an effort to revitalize sales and improve profitability. In short, the maker of Tide detergent, Pampers diapers and Olay skin creams wants to catch up to its faster growing rivals.

That not an easy thing to do for such a large company.

But the consumer products giant has just ended a fiscal year in which net revenue grew a paltry 1%. So it's decide to get smaller – quite a bit smaller —  by shedding more than half of its brands.

That's right. P&G plans to keep 70 to 80 brands and jettison the rest. That's a massive undertaking, given the breadth of its current portfolio, which includes Head & Shoulders, Old Spice, Max Factor and Hugo Boss.

Investors cheered. The stock rose 4% to $80.48, making P&G the best-performing stock in the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

Early Friday, P&G reported fiscal fourth-quarter operating profit of 95 cents a share, up from 79 cents a year ago, as revenue slipped 1% to $20.18 billion. Organic sales, which exclude impacts from currency movements and acquisitions, rose 2%.

Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters had expected earnings of 91 cents a share and revenue of $20.48 billion.

Ahead of the company's conference call, Barclays analyst Lauren Lieberman was not impressed with the numbers. She wrote:

Expectations were low coming into results so PG shares could trade up on the EPS beat, but we see this quarter's performance (and the outlook) as notably weak. In particular, volumes were flat even with a full slate of well-supported new product news in the market in big categories like Fabric and Hair Care. Beauty was particularly disappointing and we'd already modeled the quarter with the tough comparison in mind and greater promotional spending doesn't seem to have moved the needle. In terms of the outlook, it looks as though Street estimates need to come down ~2% (note, we are currently $0.09/sh below consensus for FY15).