Friday, January 31, 2014

6 Things to Know About the U.S. Housing Market

Buying a house? Thinking of selling your property? A lot of data came out in the last week that might help shape how you think about the important deal ahead. Here are some of the most important takeaways:

Sales have dipped a bit

Existing home sales in October were down slightly from September. But that doesn't mean housing is crashing. Single-family sales were off 3.2 percent from September, according to the National Association of Realtors. But October sales were up 5.1 percent from a year ago, to a seasonally-adjusted rate of 5.12 million units. The market for existing homes peaked at a 5.39 million-unit-rate.

The Realtors' conclusions are supported by data from Zillow (NASDAQ: Z), the online listing service. It also saw some slippage in sales across the country.

In addition, the Realtors' index of pending home sales was off 0.6 percent in October from September. Are the month-to-month declines a big deal? Probably not. Not unless interest rates shoot markedly higher.

Price increases are moderating

The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price index of 20 markets was up one percent in October over September, and 13.3 percent from a year ago. But the size of the gains fell back as the year rolled along.

That's partly due to buyer unwillingness to pay up,  and partly because there have been fewer bids by money-management houses to buy distressed properties and rent them out.

Market performance varies

Zillow estimated the median price of a house in the United States at $162,800 in October. From the data they see, the price is down 0.1 percent (in other words, practically nothing) from September. There were month-to-month declines in such markets as St. Louis, Chicago, Dallas, Baltimore, Pittsburgh and Philadelphia.

Prices shot up 30 percent or more from a year earlier in Las Vegas, Riverside, Calif.; and Sacramento. Those were three of the hardest-hit markets during the housing crash.

Zillow is projecting prices will increase 2.7 percent between October 2013 and October 2014.  

So, are these price changes uniform? Of course not. All real estate markets are local, and prices react to local conditions.

The outlook for construction is improving

The Commerce Department weighed in on the topic on Tuesday -- bullishly. Building permits in September were at a seasonally adjusted 974,000 units. In October, the permit rate jumped to 1.034 million units, the best number since January 2008, when the housing market was in the process of collapsing.

Building permit data have two strengths: They reflect what builders are filing for at their local planning departments. And, as important, they offer a glimpse at what to expect over the next six months or so. If interest rates don't change much, 2014 should be a good year for construction and the economy.

If you want to get a feel for the housing market going forward, watch permits.

Housing is starting to rejoin the economy

Just how much is residential construction worth to the economy? In the third quarter, investment in residential construction represented 3.17 percent of gross domestic product, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. That was the tenth quarterly gain in a row. That's part of the good news.

Here's another piece of the good news. 3.17 percent is a big improvement. In the third quarter of 2010, housing construction represented 2.4 percent of GDP.

The bad news is residential construction since 1970 has averaged 4.52 percent of the GDP. So the current level of residential investment is still roughly a third lower than the long-term trend. Housing most definitely has a ways to go.

But was the housing market completely crazed in 2005 and 2006? Indeed, it was. Building permits reached 2.16 million units in 2006, the second-highest level ever after 1972's 2.22 million units. Building permits have averaged 1.37 million units since 1959.

Residential construction investment reached 6.67 percent of GDP in the fourth quarter of 2005. That's 45 percent greater than the long-term average.

The stock market is noticing...

...and it has been for some time. The iShares U.S. Home Construction (NYSE: ITB) exchange-traded fund, which tracks building stocks, is up 260 percent since bottoming on March 6, 2009. It was up 78 percent in 2012, but to get to the bottom meant a decline of 87 percent from 2006.

The ETF has had a volatile year. It was up as much as 26 percent in mid-May, when the Federal Reserve started to talk about tapering its bond purchases. That sent the bond market into a tizzy, pushing mortgage rates up to 4.67 percent, according to Bankrate.com. And it sent the ETF's price down 21.2 percent by Sept. 5, wiping out all of its gains for the year.

But the rebound since September has been strong: The ETF is now up 10 percent for the year. 

Zillow has been buffetted around by all the talk about Fed tapering. The stock went public at $20 in July 2011. It surged 402.5 percent by September, then fell back more than 22 percent. It's still up 176 percent for the year.

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Market Wrap-Up for Nov. 18 – Letting Go of Preconceived Notions

Since the major indices flirted with monumental round numbers this morning, and on-lookers like to obsess about these sorts of milestones, I read a number of articles explaining the significance of these stock market levels. Specifically, there were a number of posts highlighting the fact that the NASDAQ Composite was nearing the 4,000 level for the first time in 13 years.

Many long-time investors will remember that the NASDAQ soared to all-time highs–at one point, it was above 5,000–at the height of the dot com bubble, and subsequently crashed. As such, many investors are still weary of the NASDAQ and its components, believing that the tech-heavy index is for risk-taking, growth investors, not long-term, dividend investors. However, this sort of mindset can put dividend investors at a disadvantage.

“Not Your Dad’s NASDAQ”

As Steven Russolillo of The Wall Street Journal points out, the way the NASDAQ Composite is compiled now barely resembles the NASDAQ of the tech boom of the late ’90s. For one, there are many more dividend payers in the tech sector, with companies like Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Cisco Systems (CSCO), and Intel (INTC) now among the notable dividend paying corp! orations. Not only that, but the NASDAQ now offers a more attractive valuation than during the days of the dot com bubble, trading at 25 times its trailing earnings versus 151 in 1999. Because of this, the NASDAQ and its components may be potential and valuable investments that can help investors build wealth over the long-run. For more, see 10 Big Tech Stocks That Pay a Dividend.

Past Performance Is Not an Indication of Future Returns

The point I am trying to make is that investors sometimes need to let go of preconceived notions when making investment de

Thursday, January 30, 2014

Mediocre Start for Two Private Equity-Backed IPOs

On a day when Twitter's impending listing dominated initial public offering buzz, two private equity backed companies debuted with tepid results.

Carlyle Group(CG)-backed CommScope(COMM)Holding Co. raised nearly $577 million in its initial public offering of 38.5 million shares, which priced at $15 apiece, below a previously set per-share range of $18 to $21.

CommScope, of Hickory, N.C., provides connectivity and infrastructure for wireless, business enterprise and residential broadband networks. It makes coaxial fiber and other cables used to build communications infrastructure. Washington, D.C.-based Carlyle took the company private in January 2011 for about $3.36 billion, or $3.9 billion including assumed debt.

The company's shares nearly ended the day where they started. Shares traded on the Nasdaq Stock Market at $14.99 each at Friday's close.

That was a smaller drop than the 6.25% slide of Endurance International Group Holdings Inc., the other PE-backed company to debut Friday. The communications infrastructure company, backed by Warburg Pincus and GS Capital Partners, the private equity affiliate of Goldman Sachs Group Inc.,  priced 21 million shares at $12 each, also under a previously estimated range of $14 to $16 per share. During 4 p.m. trading on the Nasdaq, those shares were down 75 cents, trading at $11.25.

Write to Hillary Canada at hillary.canada@wsj.com

Wednesday, January 29, 2014

FTC keeps Jos. A. Bank on the rack

NEW YORK (The Deal) -- Men's Wearhouse  (MW) said Wednesday it received a second request for information from the Federal Trade Commission, extending the antitrust review of the company's $1.6 billion hostile tender offer for rival men's clothing retailer Jos. A. Bank Clothiers (JOSB) .

An extension of the review would be the first step by the FTC toward challenging the deal on antitrust grounds, but at this stage merely issuing a second request doesn't indicate the commission staff has concluded the deal will harm competition. The second request in this instance may be nothing more than the FTC needing a few more days to get comfortable with the transaction.

Because the offer is an all-cash tender, the initial waiting period under the Hart-Scott-Rodino Act was only 15 days, half the time antitrust regulatory typically have to clear a deal or issue a second request. Nevertheless, the FTC's move does disprove the contention made by some players in the battle for the retailers that antitrust risks presented by the deal are "virtually non-existent."

Whether a merger of the two companies would face a tough road before antitrust regulators has played a role in the companies' public relations campaigns as they have made subsequent offers for each other. In the process of successfully fending off Jos. A. Bank's offer last fall, Men's Wearhouse cited antitrust risks as a reason to reject the deal. But the notion that antitrust regulators would block the deal was mocked by an activist investment firm that has been pushing for the two companies to merge. In November, Eminence Capital wrote that Men's Wearhouse's "alleged concern" that Jos. A. Bank's offer could face antitrust hurdles "is simply not credible" and noted that Men's Wearhouse's own annual report listed a wide range of competitors, including specialty men's clothing stores, traditional department stores, off-price retailers, manufacturer-owned, independently owned outlet stores and tuxedo rental stores, as well as other corporate apparel providers and all these retailers' 
e-commerce channels. Eminence also said it consulted on its own with antitrust experts and concluded that the antitrust risk of merging the two companies "is virtually non-existent." When Men's Wearhouse made its counter offer for Jos. A. Bank - the transaction the FTC is reviewing - Jos. A. Bank in its Jan. 17 rejection said its suitor's lack of clarity on the deal's regulatory chances was reason to question the would-be buyer's seriousness about the offer. Jos. A. Bank also noted that Men's Wearhouse's Jan. 6 offer gave the buyer wide berth to back out. The leeway Men's Wearhouse has given itself, combined with antitrust reservations it expressed when fending off Jos. A. Bank's own offer last year, "create doubt as to [Men's Wearhouse's] intentions and motivations," Jos. A. Bank said as part of its rejection. The terms of Men's Wearhouse's offer included an antitrust condition that allows it to terminate the offer if any court or government body "in our reasonable judgment" either directly or indirectly delays or prohibits completion of the offer or compels Men's Wearhouse to dispose of or hold separate all or any portion of its business or assets or those of Jos. A. Bank. If any federal or state antitrust authorities or private parties raise antitrust concerns, Men's Wearhouse said it will engage in negotiations with the relevant government bodies and parties to discuss possible remedies for addressing their concerns at its discretion.

Stock quotes in this article: MW, JOSB 

Monday, January 27, 2014

Parker-Hannifin Corporation (PH): How Parker Could Increase Operating Margins

Parker-Hannifin Corporation (NYSE:PH) has significant opportunities to expand its operating margins, especially within the Aerospace segment where significant longer term business has already been won, and aftermarket opportunities should increase.

With annual sales of $13 billion in fiscal year 2013, Parker Hannifin is a diversified manufacturer of motion and control technologies and systems, providing precision-engineered solutions for a wide variety of mobile, industrial and aerospace markets. It employs approximately 58,000 people in 49 countries around the world.

Aerospace is the company's strongest unit with commercial leading the way. Parker has won more than $26 billion in new business (to be converted to sales over a long period) in the past year or two. This means that growth is relatively assured, but development expenses are still relatively high and have started declining.

Aerospace margins are expected to peak near 17 percent versus the current 12.5-13 percent.

"As the R&D expenses dissipate and the lower margin OEM business matures, aerospace segment operating margins should continue to move ahead," BMO Capital Markets analyst Joel Tiss wrote in a note to clients.

Outside of the Aerospace segment, the automotive end market remains strong as does farm and agricultural equipment-related markets and distribution (about 55 percent of total Parker sales go through distribution).

On the weak side are construction equipment, oil & gas equipment (natural gas is soft with oil stronger but not great), and process industries owing to petroleum-related products. Military aerospace is sluggish from continued budget cuts, and Parker has seen some weakness in life sciences, as well.

There is a formal plan to add 200 basis points (bp) to segment operating margins to bring the entire company to at least 15 percent by 2016. This 200 bp improvement will largely come from four key areas, each approximately having the same total impact: Aerospace, Europe, in! novative products, and driving the WIN strategy.

Aerospace: A conservative 50 bp of incremental total company operating margin is expected to come from the above factors. There is at least 300 bp of margin improvement in front of the Aerospace division, but given this segment only accounts for about 17 percent of total Parker sales, the total impact comes to the 50 bp.

"Here (Aerospace), the business is already won, so all that Parker needs to do is execute – which is a core strength of this company," Tiss noted.

Europe: Another 50 bp is expected to come from Europe, where Parker is aggressively implementing another round of plant closures, workforce reductions, and other synergies (like shared services, purchasing, focused factories, etc.). The goal is to take segment margins over 15% assuming no end market growth.

In 2003-2005, the largest investor complaint against Parker was about its European operating margins, which had never cracked the double-digit mark. Parker undertook a massive restructuring and cost-cutting effort, which pushed segment margins to 15.8 percent in 2008.

The current drive to grow European operating margins is just an extension of the last restructuring effort and is more about more focused manufacturing and better purchasing than a brute force capacity/people reduction.

Innovative products: The next 50 bp is expected to come from innovative products, which has been a strategy for the past five to six years, and many of initiatives to deliver products that are new to the market and new to the world has begun to spit out a slew of innovative products.

"There are some small acquisitions and licensing agreements that are supplementing the internal new product pipeline to deliver 4% of sales from new and innovative products. These products are truly unique and carry growth, margins, and pricing well above Parker's highest levels," Tiss said.

The last 50 bp should come its continuing drive of the WIN strategy, which will never go o! ut of sty! le at Parker. The basic tenants of WIN such as lean manufacturing, strategic pricing, better procurement, on-time delivery, maximizing RONA (returns on net assets), etc., are drivers that can never be perfected but align employees and managers to maximize profitability and free cash flow.

Over 90 percent of total company employees are on an incentive/profit sharing program that drives bonus awards through free cash flow generation, RONA, operating margins, and profitable growth, which has been a strong driver of continuous improvement at all Parker operations globally.

"With some 55% of total sales going through distribution and the diversity of end market exposure, we believe that the cyclicality of the entire company is lower than for most other industrial companies," Tiss said.

Moreover, the focus on dividends, new product introductions, acquisitions, and share repurchase is not likely to wane as free cash flow remains well in excess of net income, and the balance sheet is extremely clean.

The company's growth plans and margin improvement initiatives are solid and achievable. Margin improvement from the aerospace division seems to be almost certain as $26 billion of new business has been won recently, and as the R&D spending turns into revenues and earnings costs decline as profits improve.

"Even five or more years down the road, margins should have a further upward bias as OEM mix is complemented by more aftermarket opportunities," Tiss added.

Sunday, January 26, 2014

Shutdown and default: What are the odds?

john boehner defund obamacare

No House Speaker wants a government shutdown or U.S. default on his watch. That's why some believe John Boehner's gambit to satisfy rebels in his caucus who insist on defunding Obamacare could hurt his legacy.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) The uncertainty created by the budget standoff on Capitol Hill is turning everyone into an oddsmaker.

Will the government shut down? Will the Treasury Department be forced to default on some of the government's legal obligations?

CNN: House votes to defund Obamacare

CNNMoney compiled the most recent odds given by four seasoned political observers.

As a group they agree a shutdown is more likely than a default, but they are by no means unified as to the chances for either.

Greg Valliere, chief political strategist, Potomac Research Group

Chance of a shutdown: Less than 50% but rising

Chance of a default: 10%, up from 5% a few days ago.

House Republican leaders have "capitulated to their rebellious troops, moving closer to a government shutdown and a debt crisis that even Karl Rove argues could do great damage to the Republican Party," Valliere wrote in a research note.

Sean West, U.S. policy director, Eurasia Group

Chance of a shutdown: 20%

Chance of a default: "Infinitesimal"

If a shutdown happens, West said, "it would be an accident because nobody in power actually wants it. ... The biggest risk is of a miscalculation: That risk has gone up as both sides play hardball, with no responsible adult herding the key stakeholders together."

As for defaulting, "It's impossible to believe Congress would let it happen." The "fail safe," he said, is House Speaker John Boehner, who won't want a default on his watch.

Stan Collender, budget expert and former Democratic Hill ! staffer

Chance of a shutdown: 70%

Chance of a default: 10% to 20%

Collender cites a long list of reasons for his high shutdown odds in his blog Capital Gains and Games. Among them, there's no charismatic leader who can overcome the partisan warfare. President Obama and Boehner have too little sway with their own parties. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, who has served as a deal closer in prior budget standoffs, is now weakened by the fact that he's facing a primary challenge by a Tea Party candidate.

Plus, for many House Republicans, the "negative political impact" of the shutdowns in the mid-1990s is "a distant (or nonexistent) memory."

But the biggest complication is that this year's fight isn't really about the budget -- it's about Obamacare. And that makes it harder to strike a budget deal that can avert a shutdown or default, he argues.

Jim Kessler, senior vice president for policy at Third Way, a Democratic-leaning centrist think tank; and former Democratic Hill staffer

Chance of a shutdown: 75%

Chance of a default: 50%

"As bad as a shutdown is, it's not as devastating as a default and I think Republicans are willing to go there. It would be bad, but the sun will still rise in the morning," Kessler said.

What happens in a government shutdown   What happens in a government shutdown

As for raising the country's borrowing limit, Kessler also finds it hard to be sanguine.

During the 2011 debt ceiling fight, he could see a way out. This time he sees more chance for "chaos than resolution."

"I think there's a very real possibility that we default on some obligations, experience very bad market turmoil, and then quickly pass a debt deal that could possibly cost Boehner his speakership."

Saturday, January 25, 2014

2 'Syria-Proof' Oil Stocks With Yields Up To 6.4%

When Syria uses chemical warfare or Iran threatens to launch missiles, it puts the collective world on edge, pushes stock markets over the edge and launches oil prices off the charts. The mere mention of Middle East mayhem has been known to spur investors to sell and seek shelter from a potential storm of profit-taking.

Unrest in oil-rich parts of the world has been a part of history seemingly forever. Although Syria, the latest Middle Eastern country on the global radar, accounts for just 0.5% (half a million barrels per day) of world production, it's the domino effect that has investors on pins and needles.  

Syria's allegiance with Iran, a potential civil war in Iraq, and continuous tension in Egypt--home to the oil-transporting Suez Canal -- puts about 3.5 million barrels a day at risk. Any escalation could trigger economic sanctions, sending the price of oil back to the $150 mark or more.

But you don't need to let it wreak havoc on your portfolio.

Why not grab the oil bull by the horns and invest in stocks with nothing at stake should someone stick a cork in the Suez Canal, and everything to gain from panic-driven oil prices? Let's look at a couple of oil companies that stand to profit amid either peace or war in the Middle East -- and deliver hefty dividends to boot.

For our first gem, we look to Canada. A Canadian energy trust operating as a real estate investment trust (REIT), Enerplus (NYSE: ERF) is the largest conventional oil and natural gas income fund in North America. The Calgary-based company typically invests in mature properties located in Western Canada -- far from any upheaval in the Middle East.

Here's something you may not know: Our Northern friends are one of the top oil exporters to the United States; Mexico and Venezuela are the others. It's a misconception that the U.S. imports most of its oil from the Middle East. Last year, an average of 2.8 million barrels per day came from Canada, double what the U.S. imported from Saudi Arabia last year. 

There is little doubt that Enerplus has benefited from the recent increases in energy prices. The price of oil hit a year-to-date low of $97 per barrel on April 17 and increased 10% to $107 per barrel in September. Since mid-April, shares of ERF have shot up 31%.

Enerplus said in its second-quarter earnings report that daily production rose 10% year over year and that it remains on track to meet or beat analysts price targets of $22.50 this year. Add to that a meaty 6.4% yield, and I think we've found a way to sleep well at night.

The next opportunity takes us across the Atlantic. French supermajor Total (NYSE: TOT)) is the world's fifth-largest publicly traded oil and gas company. Like Enerplus, its stock performance is strongly correlated with the price of oil and is highly likely to benefit from further spikes. Over this summer, Total's stock rose from $47 to $57 in just three months on the back of high oil prices.

That's not even the best part.

2012 Proved Reserves By Region

In late August, China National Petroleum (NYSE: SNP) finalized an agreement with Total and Tethys Petroleum (OTC: TETHF) to develop petroleum assets in Tajikistan in Central Asia. According to a Woods Mackenzie report, China will spend $500 billion a year on crude oil imports by 2020 and overtake the U.S. as the biggest consumer by 2014. Total also recently secured new developments in Africa and Australia.

But -- and this is a big "but" -- Total also just bought retail and commercial fuel operations in Egypt from Royal Dutch Shell (NYSE: RDS) and Chevron (NYSE: CVX). It may be risky to buy anything with ties to Egypt right now, but the company's exposure is small: About 8.5% of production is in "high-risk" countries.

With Total's dividend yield near 5%, I can look past the Egyptian connection. Only Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM) exceeds Total's ability to extract cheap oil and achieve higher earnings per barrel of produced oil. Total's sales grew 8% from the previous year to $266 billion in 2012, and its operating income increased 2.4% over the same period.

Looking ahead, Total has a target of 3% annual production growth up to 2015, backed by geographically diverse pipeline of new projects. The company expects output to reach about 3 million barrels a day in 2017.

Risks to Consider: Commodities and volatility go hand in hand. It's never a good idea to devote a large percentage of your portfolio to oil stocks. Should oil take a turn south, you might want to limit any exposure to 10% or less.

Actions to Take --> Both Enerplus and Total are trading above their 50- and 200-day moving averages and have strong upside potential. If oil appeals to you, these stocks might also.

P.S. -- Here at StreetAuthority we're seeing a major disconnect in one of the most important commodities on Earth. And it's a great opportunity for every single investor. Once you see this one chart, I think you'll agree. Click here now.

Friday, January 24, 2014

Is wacky ‘70 Plymouth Superbird worth $500K?

The world knows it as the 1970 Plymouth Road Runner Superbird. But given its rarity and how quickly it became an anachronism, it might as well be a dodo bird.

With its bullet-shaped, bolted-on nose and sky-high wing in back, Superbird is one of the more unusual looking cars ever to go on sale. Now one is coming up for auction.

Despite its strange looks, it's valued by the auction house at $400,00 to $500,000. That's all for a car designed to conquer NASCAR with a design so outlandish that it was never expected to be sold in large numbers.

Only 2,000 of those were sold. Of those, only 58 had Hemi four-speeds, says RM Auctions and Southby's, which is putting

one on the block Nov. 21 in New York.

RM says it was designed with one person in mind, NASCAR champion Richard Petty. Superbird was meant to lure him from Ford to Chrysler by taking advantage of 1969 NASCAR rules that required sales of 500 cars of a particular model a year to qualify. By 1971, NASCAR had changed the rules to limit horsepower to cars with big wings, dooming the Superbird.

This one has 16,360 original miles, RM says, and was restored in 2002. It originally sold in New Jersey for $5,503.

Monday, January 20, 2014

Whither Japan Stocks: Jim Rogers Likes Blue Chips And The Yen; More To Come From Abenomics

I had a chance to meet fabled "investment biker" and "Asia Century" enthusiast Jim Rogers at last year's

English: American investor Jim Rogers in Madri...

English: American investor Jim Rogers in Madrid (Spain) during an interview. Español: El inversor norteamericano Jim Rogers en Madrid (España) durante una entrevista. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

FreedomFest in Las Vegas. He was selling a new book, but also contributed a lot of contrarian investment wisdom and ideas on the panels. What he did not divulge was that he had been a buyer of Japanese stocks after the March 2011 Tohoku/Fukushima disasters and would become a bigger buyer under Abenomics.

Rogers was interviewed by the Nihon Keizai Shimbun at his Singapore home on January 20. He offered that he increased his Japanese equities position in November 2012 when then candidate Abe began calling for strong reflationary measures from the Bank of Japan (BOJ).  He continued buying during 2013, favoring Japan-related ETFs and agribusiness stocks.

Rogers told the Nikkei that he recently bought Japanese blue chips, expecting that Japan's retail investors will favor blue chips as they begin funding newly offered NISA (Japanese-version IRA) accounts.

Rogers is a contrarian who sees prevailing market sentiment as a sell signal. Asked whether he is hedging his Japanese equity positions, he said that he thinks the market has oversold the yen on expectations of continued yen depreciation and that a reversal to yen strengthening is possible.  He has stopped hedging.  Last week he bought NTT (NYSE:NTT) with no hedge.

Rogers is watching closely the rollout of Abe's "Third Arrow" economic growth strategy (more below).  He worries that uncontrolled BOJ money printing could destroy the country.

I agree with Rogers on most things, including—or maybe especially–his long-term bullishness on China. (News today in Japan's newspapers that China's nominal GDP in 2013 rose to about double Japan's.) Last July in Las Vegas Rogers averred that China's human rights and legal system failings should be seen as part a societal transition, and will eventually be corrected. The only real threat to China's continued development and increasing prosperity is ensuring adequate sources of water.

Asked at FreedomFest for his best investment ideas, Rogers talked without irony about North Korea. If North and South Korea united the country would become a manufacturing powerhouse to rival Japan. The difficulty is finding ways to invest in North Korea.

Back in Japan from some estimable economic diplomacy in the Gulf and Africa, and before departing to give the keynote address at this year's Davos Forum in Switzerland, Prime Minister Abe Shinzo has been heralding that Abenomics and his "Third Arrow" has much more to offer.

Two important policy committees, both officially chaired by Abe, are working on proposals and draft legislation to promote economic growth and competitiveness.  Both committees aim to produce recommendations in June.

The Council on Economic and Fiscal Policy met for media benefit on January 20, allowing Abe exhort it to craft reforms that will spur growth over the next 10 for 15 years. The committee's private sector members created a burst of media buzz by calling for a 10 point cut in the corporate rate, to 25%.

According to its advocates, lowering the corporate tax rate is critical for attracting growth-producing foreign direct investment into Japan. After terminating the Tohoku disaster reconstruction surtax last year, the effective corporate tax rate (in Tokyo) is dropping this year from 38% to 35.64%. This is about 5 points lower than the effective U.S., but it is still well above the rate prevailing in Japan's rivals for investment, China (25%) and South Korea (24.2%).

The disadvantageous tax rate is one factor in Japan's poor record in attracting FDI.  Last year, while foreign portfolio investors poured some JPY 15 trillion (USD 144 billion) into traded Japanese equities, direct investment in new ventures, plant & equipment, and M & A hardly increased. Aggregate FDI in Japan at the end September 2013 was JPY 18.1 trillion, up a mere JPY 0.3 trillion from the end of 2012.

Abe is pushing for reforms to make Japan a better place to do business. The Council for Industrial Competitiveness is the other committee he chairs that exists specifically to produce "Third Arrow" initiatives. This committee also met on January 20, appropriately at the Prime Minister's residence. Deregulation in medical services, agriculture, construction, and employment (including foreign workers) will be among the key reform initiatives.

In Prime Minister Abe's frenetic personal economic diplomacy and forceful domestic policy leadership we sense a stark and unnerving reality. Looked at critically, Abenomics is in many ways a desperate gamble, a (risky) race against time. Abenomics is a "Hail Mary" throw to win in a game that Japan has been losing. The game is: Can Abenomics' pro-growth policies raise national income and begin to restore fiscal health before being bankrupted by its welfare state?

Thursday, January 16, 2014

Daily ETF Roundup: FDN and XLP Pop Ahead Of Unofficial ...

Following a holiday-shortened week, U.S. equities logged in their three-session win streak ahead of the unofficial kickoff of the Q2 earnings season. After the closing bell, aluminum giant Alcoa (AA) reported a $119 million second quarter loss due to weak aluminum prices, putting the bellwether's EPS at a mere 7 cents per share. Later this week, financial giants JPMorgan (JPM) and Wells Fargo (WFC) are slated to post their earnings. So far, analysts have been quite negative on this coming earnings season .



Global Market Overview: FDN and XLP Pop Ahead Of Unofficial Start Of Earnings SeasonAhead of Alcoa's unofficial kickoff of the Q2 earnings season, all three major U.S. equity indexes managed to close in positive territory. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF rallied 0.66% after its underlying index was within 200 points of reaching its record close of 15,409.39. The S&P 500 ETF rose 0.57%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq ETF inched up 0.11%.

In Europe, markets were broadly higher after Portuguese Prime Minister Pedro Passos Coelho announced a cabinet reshuffle over the weekend; the Stoxx Europe 600 rallied 1.4%. Meanwhile, Japan's Nikkei Stock Average dropped 1.4%, while China's Shanghai Composite fell 2.4%.

Bond ETF Roundup

U.S. Treasuries traded higher today following the previous session's massive selloff. Yields on 10-year notes fell 7 basis points, while 30-year bonds and 5-year note yields fell 3 and 9 basis points, respectively .

Commodity Roundup

Crude oil futures traded lower today, but still settled  above $103 a barrel on a stronger dollar and looming concerns over violence in Egypt. In other energy trading, gasoline fell a cent while natural gas jumped 3.4%. Meanwhile, gold futures rose $22.20 to settle at $1,234.90 an ounce.

ETF Chart Of The Day #1: The DJ Internet Index Fund was one of the best performers today, gaining 0.90% during the session. After shares of Google (GOOG) climbed back above $900, this ET! F gapped significantly higher at the open. FDN slid sideways for the remainder of the day, eventually settling at $47.11 a share .

Click To EnlargeETF Chart Of The Day #2: The Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF also posted a strong performance today, gaining 1.00% during the session. Consumer staples shares were among today's best performers, allowing this ETF to jump significantly higher during the first hour of trading. XLP eventually settled at $40.43 a share .

Click To EnlargeETF Fun Fact Of The DayThe best-performing regional strategy over the trailing 1-year period has been the Global Titans ETFdb Portfolio, which has gained 14.92%.

Disclosure: No positions at time of writing.

Wednesday, January 15, 2014

Can Time Warner Cable Continue to Surge Higher?

With shares of Time Warner Cable (NYSE:TWC) trading around $136, is TWC an OUTPERFORM, WAIT AND SEE, or STAY AWAY? Let's analyze the stock with the relevant sections of our CHEAT SHEET investing framework:

T = Trends for a Stock’s Movement

Time Warner Cable is a provider of video, high-speed data, and voice services in the United States, with systems located in five geographic areas: New York, the Carolinas, Ohio, Southern California, and Texas. The company offers its residential and business services customers numerous services over its broadband cable systems. With such a large and growing user base, look for Time Warner Cable to continue to see rising profits from its media, entertainment, and communications offerings.

Time Warner Cable shares rose above the price of $132.50 per share offered on Monday by smaller rival Charter Communications Inc, a deal that was swiftly rejected by the No. 2 U.S. cable TV operator. Time Warner Cable’s shares were up 3 percent at $136.40 on Tuesday morning, suggesting some investors expect a higher bid. Calling the bid “grossly inadequate,” Time Warner Cable rejected the $37.3 billion offer, the third attempt by Charter to acquire the company. Analysts said Time Warner Cable’s demand of $160 per share was reasonable and Charter could raise its bid. ”We believe something in the neighborhood of 10 percent near-term upside (for Time Warner) if an agreement at TWC’s asking price of $160 were to be announced is reasonable,” Stifel Nicolaus analyst Christopher King said in a note. Charter’s Chief Executive Tom Rutledge said the company now planned to take the deal directly to Time Warner Cable shareholders. Charter proposed to pay around $83 per share in cash and the rest in its own stock. Including debt, the deal is worth about $62.35 billion.

T = Technicals on the Stock Chart Are Strong

Time Warner Cable stock has been trading sideways in recent times. The stock is currently surging higher and looks poised to continue. Analyzing the price trend and its strength can be done using key simple moving averages. What are the key moving averages? The 50-day (pink), 100-day (blue), and 200-day (yellow) simple moving averages. As seen in the daily price chart below, Time Warner Cable is trading above its rising key averages, which signal neutral to bullish price action in the near-term.

TWC

(Source: Thinkorswim)

Taking a look at the implied volatility (red) and implied volatility skew levels of Time Warner Cable options may help determine if investors are bullish, neutral, or bearish.

Implied Volatility (IV)

30-Day IV Percentile

90-Day IV Percentile

Time Warner Cable options

17.51%

0%

0%

What does this mean? This means that investors or traders are buying a very small amount of call and put options contracts, as compared to the last 30 and 90 trading days.

Put IV Skew

Call IV Skew

February Options

Flat

Average

March Options

Flat

Average

As of today, there is an average demand from call buyers or sellers and low demand by put buyers or high demand by put sellers, all neutral to bullish over the next two months. To summarize, investors are buying a very small amount of call and put option contracts and are leaning neutral to bullish over the next two months.

On the next page, let’s take a look at the earnings and revenue growth rates and the conclusion.

E = Earnings Are Mixed Quarter-Over-Quarter

Rising stock prices are often strongly correlated with rising earnings and revenue growth rates. Also, the last four quarterly earnings announcement reactions help gauge investor sentiment on Time Warner Cable’s stock. What do the last four quarterly earnings and revenue growth (Y-O-Y) figures for Time Warner Cable look like and more importantly, how did the markets like these numbers?

2013 Q3

2013 Q2

2013 Q1

2012 Q4

Earnings Growth (Y-O-Y)

-29.23%

14.69%

11.67%

-3.74%

Revenue Growth (Y-O-Y)

2.89%

2.70%

6.64%

9.85%

Earnings Reaction

2.79%

3.16%

-0.58%

-11.28%

Time Warner Cable has seen mixed earnings and increasing revenue figures over the last four quarters. From these numbers, the markets have had conflicting feelings about Time Warner Cable’s recent earnings announcements.

P = Average Relative Performance Versus Peers and Sector

How has Time Warner Cable stock done relative to its peers, Comcast (NASDAQ:CMCSA), Dish Network (NASDAQ:DISH), DirecTV (NASDAQ:DTV), and sector?

Time Warner Cable

Comcast

Dish Network

DirecTV

Sector

Year-to-Date Return

0.85%

1.34%

-2.56%

2.72%

1.58%

Time Warner Cable has been an average relative performer, year-to-date.

Conclusion

Time Warner Cable provides entertainment, voice, and high-speed data services to a growing customer base in the United States. The company rejected the $37.3 billion offer, the third attempt by Charter to acquire the company. The stock has been trading sideways in recent times, but is currently surging higher. Over the last four quarters, earnings have been mixed while revenues have been rising which has produced conflicting feelings among investors. Relative to its peers and sector, Time Warner Cable has been an average year-to-date performer. WAIT AND SEE what Time Warner Cable does this quarter.

Monday, January 13, 2014

Milk, Games and Movies: China Stocks to Watch in 2014

China's domestic stock market recorded another disappointing year in 2013, with Shanghai clocking in as Asia’s worst-performing market.

But investors shouldn't be disheartened looking ahead to 2014, fund managers say, noting that the nation's demographic changes, consumption potential and reform plans will open up plenty of opportunities to make money this year.

One area to watch: dairy products. The government's relaxation of its one-child policy and antitrust measures targeting international competitors are both good news for the domestic milk industry, Bank of Communications Schroder Fund Management Co. said in a recent research report. Retail prices of China's dairy products rose 5.7% in 2013 on-year, up from an increase of 3.2% in 2012, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed—faster than inflation, which clocked in for the year at 2.6%.

The relaxation in the one-child policy and the inevitable baby boom it will bring mean more than just good news for milk makers.

"When the babies grow up, what do they do? They play online games," Shen Nan, an economist with Schroder said at a news briefing to release the report.

The fund manager recommended stocks linked to the animated and online games sector, especially the nation's mobile gaming industry, which saw exponential growth in 2013. The number of China's mobile gamers surged 248% in 2013 on-year to about 310 million, and the sector's total sales revenue climbed 247% from a year earlier to 11.24 billion yuan ($1.9 billion), according to media-research firm EntGroup. 

Meanwhile, as China presses ahead with urbanization, consumers in smaller cities are likely to spend more on entertainment, like going to the movies, the fund manager said. That industry has tremendous growth potential: on average, Chinese people go to movie theaters less than once a year, far below levels seen in more developed economies, it said.

The government has also taken measures to improve medical services at the nation's county levels so patients won't have to travel to large cities for treatment of serious illness, which is likely to create expansion opportunities for the medical care providers, the fund said.

More than 170 counties throughout China have experimented with medicare reforms by standardizing fee-collection systems and purchasing better medical equipment, the nation's health ministry said.

–Liyan Qi

Follow @ChinaRealTime on Twitter for the latest updates.

Sunday, January 12, 2014

Ron Baron Comments on The Boston Beer Company Inc.

During the second quarter, we added to our position in The Boston Beer Company, Inc. (SAM), best known for its Sam Adams brand. Founded in 1984 by sixth generation brewer Jim Koch, Boston Beer is the largest craft brewer in the United States, selling three million barrels annually and generating close to $700 million in sales.While craft beer represents just 7% of the U.S. beer industry by volume, it is one of the fastest and most exciting growth segments in the beverage space. More flavorful and exotic brews are rapidly taking share from 'big beer' brands such as Budweiser and Miller and increasingly even wine and spirits. This is occurring as consumers seek out more variety, more flavor and better quality ingredients from their beers, similar to what the wine industry experienced several decades ago. We believe Boston Beer remains the clear innovator and leader in this category with the broadest portfolio and frequent new product introductions. Though they have the largest share of craft, Boston Beer represents just a little over 1% of the overall U.S. beer market, offering meaningful opportunities to leverage its infrastructure and gain wider distribution across the country. (Matt Weiss)

From Ron Baron's second quarter 2013 commentary.


Related links:Second quarter 2013 commentary

Saturday, January 11, 2014

Top 5 Canadian Stocks To Own For 2014

Canadian stocks rose, erasing earlier losses of as much as 0.3 percent to clinch a fifth week of gains, as a surge in Valeant Pharmaceuticals International Inc. (VRX) offset a slump in oil and gold producers.

Valeant jumped 13 percent to an 11-year high after a person familiar with negotiations said Canada�� largest drugmaker might pay $9 billion to buy Bausch & Lomb. Manitoba Telecom Services Inc. surged 5.7 percent after agreeing to sell its Allstream unit to a firm co-founded by Egyptian billionaire Naguib Sawiris. Encana Corp. fell 0.7 percent as oil capped its biggest weekly decline in more than a month. Banro Corp. and OceanaGold Corp. slid more than 3.9 percent as gold retreated.

The Standard & Poor��/TSX Composite Index (SPTSX) rose 9.13 points, or 0.1 percent, to 12,667.22 at 4 p.m. in Toronto. The benchmark equity gauge�� 0.4 percent gain in the past five days gave it the longest streak of weekly advances since February 2012.

��he S&P/TSX has been pretty quiet while other markets have been swinging a lot,��said Stephen Gauthier, chief investment officer with Fin-XO Securities Inc. in Montreal. The firm manages C$500 million ($484 million). ��ommodities are falling. We��e seeing oil is down, as is gold. The U.S. economy has been doing pretty well, so it�� providing a bit of a floor to markets.��

Top 5 Canadian Stocks To Own For 2014: Castle (A.M.)

A. M. Castle & Co., together with its subsidiaries, distributes specialty metals and plastics worldwide. The company operates in two segments, Metals and Plastics. The Metals segment distributes engineered specialty grades and alloys of metals, as well as provides specialized processing services. It offers alloy, aluminum, nickel, stainless steel, carbon, and titanium in various forms, such as plate, sheet, extrusions, round bar, hexagon bar, square and flat bar, tubing, and coil. This segment also performs various specialized fabrications for its customers through pre-qualified subcontractors that thermally process, turn, polish, and straighten alloy and carbon bars. The Plastics segment distributes various plastics in forms that include plate, rod, tube, clear sheet, tape, gaskets, and fittings. The company serves Fortune 500 companies, as well as medium and smaller sized firms in the retail, automotive, marine, office furniture and fixtures, safety products, life scienc es applications, general manufacturing, producer durable equipment, oil and gas, aerospace and defense, heavy industrial equipment, industrial goods, and construction equipment industries. It has operations in the United States, Canada, Mexico, France, the United Kingdom, China, and Singapore. The company was founded in 1890 and is headquartered in Oak Brook, Illinois.

Top 5 Canadian Stocks To Own For 2014: Franklin Covey Company (FC)

Franklin Covey Co. provides training and consulting solutions to address leadership, execution, productivity, trust, customer loyalty, sales performance, and education problems worldwide. The company also offers clients with training in management skills, relationship skills, and individual effectiveness, as well as personal-effectiveness literature and electronic educational solutions. In addition, it sells a suite of individual-effectiveness and leadership-development training products; and books, e-books, audio media, downloadable and paper-based tools, content-rich software applications for smart phones and other handheld devices, training accessories, and other related products. The company delivers its products and services through onsite presentations, facilitators, international licensees, e-learning, public workshops, custom solutions, intellectual property licenses, and media publishing methods to organizational clients, including corporations, governmental agenc ies, educational institutions, and other organizations, as well as individual clients. Franklin Covey Co. was founded in 1983 and is headquartered in Salt Lake City, Utah.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Seth Jayson]

    Franklin Covey (NYSE: FC  ) reported earnings on July 9. Here are the numbers you need to know.

    The 10-second takeaway
    For the quarter ended June 1 (Q3), Franklin Covey beat expectations on revenues and beat expectations on earnings per share.

  • [By Laura Brodbeck]

    Tuesday

    Earnings Expected: IHS Inc. (NYSE: IHS), Commercial Metals Company (NYSE: CMC), Franklin Covey Company (NYSE: FC), Micron Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ: MU), Apollo Group, Inc. (NASDAQ: APOL) Economic Releases Expected: French consumer confidence, German unemployment rate, Brazilian CPI, Canadian trade balance

    Wednesday

  • [By Seth Jayson]

    Calling all cash flows
    When you are trying to buy the market's best stocks, it's worth checking up on your companies' free cash flow once a quarter or so, to see whether it bears any relationship to the net income in the headlines. That's what we do with this series. Today, we're checking in on Franklin Covey (NYSE: FC  ) , whose recent revenue and earnings are plotted below.

Top 5 Penny Companies To Buy Right Now: Enbridge Inc(ENB)

Enbridge Inc. engages in the transportation and distribution of crude oil and natural gas primarily in Canada and the United States. Its Liquids Pipelines segment operates common carrier and contract crude oil, natural gas liquids (NGLs), and refined products pipelines and terminals. The company?s Gas Distribution segment distributes natural gas to residential, commercial, and industrial customers primarily in central and eastern Ontario, northern New York State, Quebec, and New Brunswick. Enbridge?s Gas Pipelines, Processing and Energy Services segment invests in natural gas pipelines, processing and green energy projects, and commodity marketing businesses, as well as performs commodity storage, transport, and supply management services. Its Sponsored Investments segment transports crude oil and other liquid hydrocarbons through common carrier and feeder pipelines, as well as transports, gathers, processes, and markets natural gas and NGLs; operates a crude oil and liqui ds pipeline and gathering system; and owns a 50% interest in the Canadian portion of Alliance Pipeline and partial interests in various green energy investments. The company was formerly known as IPL Energy Inc. and changed its name to Enbridge Inc. in October 1998. Enbridge Inc. was founded in 1949 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By WWW.GURUFOCUS.COM]

    Enbridge Inc. (ENB) operates as an energy transportation and distribution company in the United States and Canada. Dec. 4, the company increased its quarterly dividend 16.7% to $0.35 per share. The dividend is payable March 1, 2014, to shareholders of record on Feb. 14, 2014. The yield based on the new payout is 3.4%.

  • [By Callum Turcan]

    Bridging the way
    Enbridge (NYSE: ENB  ) currently carries 2.2 million barrels of crude oil and liquids�each day through its vast 15,372 thousand mile pipeline system.Enbridge has recently undergone�a $6.2 billion program to grow shipping capacity in Western Canada and the Bakken by 400,000 bpd. Western Canada is home to the booming oil sands play, so Enbridge is trying to capitalize on two high-growth markets.

  • [By Dan Caplinger]

    Energy has also held the Canadian economy back, with challenges hampering the potential growth in the industry. Enbridge (NYSE: ENB  ) and TransCanada, for instance, both have huge opportunities to capitalize on prospective new pipelines, yet environmental concerns haven't allowed the companies to work as quickly as they might otherwise to build out energy-transportation infrastructure for hard-to-reach production areas.

  • [By Aimee Duffy]

    The Seaway pipeline, the joint venture between�Enterprise Products Partners (NYSE: EPD  ) and Enbridge (NYSE: ENB  ) , has taken on a life of its own, as speculators are trying to gain access to the last bit of capacity to sell the space on a secondary market. In this video, Fool.com contributor Aimee Duffy explains what is going on and why this pipeline matters so much to oil producers and investors alike.

Top 5 Canadian Stocks To Own For 2014: EMC Corporation(EMC)

EMC Corporation develops, delivers, and supports the information and virtual infrastructure technologies and solutions. The company offers enterprise storage systems and software, which are deployed in storage area networks (SAN), networked attached storage (NAS), unified storage combining NAS and SAN, object storage, and/or direct attached storage environments, as well as provides backup and recovery, and disaster recovery and archiving solutions. It also offers information security solutions in various areas, such as enterprise governance, risk and compliance, data loss prevention, security information management, continuous network monitoring, fraud protection, identity assurance and access control, and encryption and key management. In addition, the company provides information intelligence software, solutions, and services, including EMC Captiva for intelligent enterprise capture; EMC Document Sciences for customer communications management; EMC Kazeon for e-discovery ; EMC Documentum xCP for building business solutions and an action engine for big data; and the EMC Documentum platform for managing and delivering enterprise information. Further, it offers virtual and cloud infrastructure products, such as virtualization and virtualization-based cloud infrastructure solutions that address a range of IT problems, as well as facilitate access to cloud computing capacity, business continuity, software lifecycle management, and corporate end-user computing device management In addition, the company provides consulting, technology deployment, managed, customer support, and training and certification services. EMC Corporation markets its products through direct sales and through multiple distribution channels in North America, Latin America, Europe, the Middle East, South Africa, and the Asia Pacific region. The company was founded in 1979 and is headquartered in Hopkinton, Massachusetts.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By WALLSTCHEATSHEET.COM]

    EMC provides essential and innovative technology products to industry participants around the world. The stock has done reasonably well over the last several years but is currently seeing increased selling. Earnings and revenue figures have been steadily increasing but investors have been expecting more from the company. Relative to its peers and sector, EMC has done extremely poorly in year-to-date performance. STAY AWAY from EMC stock for now.

Top 5 Canadian Stocks To Own For 2014: Swisher Hygiene Inc.(SWSH)

Swisher Hygiene Inc. provides hygiene and sanitation solutions in North America and internationally. Its solutions include cleaning and sanitizing products and services designed to promote cleanliness and sanitation in commercial and residential environments. The company involves in the sale of consumable products, such as soaps, paper, cleaning chemicals, detergents, and supplies, together with the rental and servicing of dish machines and other equipment for the dispensing of those products; sale and rental of facility service items requiring regular maintenance and cleaning, such as floor mats, mops, and bar towels; provision of manual cleaning services for facilities; and provision of solid waste collection services. It serves customers in a range of end-markets, including foodservice, hospitality, retail, industrial, and healthcare industries. Swisher Hygiene Inc. offers its services through 69 company owned operations and 10 franchise operations located throughout th e United States and Canada; and through 10 master license agreements covering the United Kingdom, Ireland, Portugal, the Netherlands, Singapore, the Philippines, Taiwan, Korea, Hong Kong, Macau, China, and Mexico. The company was founded in 1986 and is headquartered in Charlotte, North Carolina.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Lisa Levin]

    Swisher Hygiene (NASDAQ: SWSH) shares touched a new 52-week low of $0.55. Swisher shares have dropped 51.30% over the past 52 weeks, while the S&P 500 index has gained 31.68% in the same period.

  • [By Lisa Levin]

    Swisher Hygiene (NASDAQ: SWSH) shares touched a new 52-week low of $0.732. Swisher Hygiene appointed William Pierce as its new president and CEO.

    Territorial Bancorp (NASDAQ: TBNK) shares touched a new 52-week low of $21.31. Territorial Bancorp shares have dropped 9.43% over the past 52 weeks, while the S&P 500 index has gained 16.18% in the same period.

Pentagon Pinches Pennies

The U.S. military has a reputation as a somewhat secretive organization. But in one respect at least, the Pentagon is one of the most "open" of our government agencies. Every day of the week, rain or shine, the Department of Defense tells U.S. taxpayers what contracts it's issued, to whom, and for how much -- all right out in the open on its website.

DoD is budgeted to spend about $6.2 billion a week on military hardware, infrastructure projects, and supplies in fiscal 2013. (A further $5.6 billion a week goes to pay the salaries and benefits of U.S. servicemen and servicewomen). But as you may recall, the Pentagon went a wee bit over budget a couple of weeks back. It's been on a financial diet ever since, and last week, ir spent less than $1.5 billion.

That works out to a bit less than $0.25 on the department's budgeted defense-spending dollar -- making last week's actions literally "two-bit." Yet there was still some news of note.

Raytheon's jam session
Right out of the gate, Raytheon (NYSE: RTN  ) won one of the week's biggest contracts Monday. Valued at $279 million, its deal to help develop a Next Generation Jammer, or NGJ, for the U.S. Navy accounted for nearly 20% of the funds awarded last week. Over the next 22 months, Raytheon will work to develop a new electronic warfare system offering "significantly improved airborne electronic attack capabilities against advanced threats."

Once ready for market, NGJ will replace the ALQ-99 tactical jamming system now in use aboard Boeing EA-18G Growler and Northrop Grumman EA-6B Prowler electronic warfare aircraft.

Oh, great. Now Count Dracula has missiles.
Half as large in dollar value, but infinitely bigger in political controversy, is America's plan to build an Aegis Ashore Missile Defense System to defend against Iranian ballistic missiles. The base is going up near the village of Deveselu, Romania -- about 125 miles southwest of Count Dracula's Transylvanian castle.

Raytheon's rockets will be deployed to defend the base, while Lockheed Martin (NYSE: LMT  ) is managing the overall project. And last week, we found out who will build it, when government contractor KBR (NYSE: KBR  ) was awarded $134 million to turn the 430-acre site into a missile base.


Screen shot from Atari's Missile Command. Source: Wikipedia.

Opportunities on the horizon
That was about it for contracts of significant size awarded last week. Sure, there were other awards: $13 million for Lockheed to repair some helicopters here, $8 million for Exelis (NYSE: XLS  ) to deliver some spare parts there. But really, the more interesting news last week concerned future contract wins -- and because those aren't "news" yet, they've received much less attention in the media and offer more potential for profit for investors.

So let's turn our attention now to Congress, where the Defense Security Cooperation Agency has filed two notifications in the past five days, regarding foreign military sales contracts that may soon be concluded. The biggest request by dollar value this past week came on Tuesday, when DSCA sought a Congressional OK for the sale of $1.2 billion worth of Mark V patrol boats to the Saudi Arabian military. No primary contractor was named in that notice, however.

As a result, it seems United Technologies (NYSE: UTX  ) is the bigger opportunity here. DSCA is seeking permission from Congress to sell Greece $250 million worth of engine spare parts for its F-16 fleet. The parts will be used to maintain the UTC-built F100-PW-229 engines that power the fleet.


Lockheed Martin F-16. Source: Wikimedia Commons.

Mind you, no contract has yet been signed on this deal. It hasn't been officially announced yet, and most investors aren't factoring it into their valuations of United Tech. No one knows about it -- except that now, you do.

Boeing operates as a major player in a multitrillion-dollar defense market in which the opportunities and responsibilities are absolutely massive. However, emerging competitors and the company's execution problems have investors wondering whether Boeing will live up to its shareholder responsibilities. The Fool's premium research report on the company provides investors with the must-know issues surrounding Boeing. They'll be updating the report as key news hits, so don't miss out -- simply click here now to claim your copy today.

Thursday, January 9, 2014

The End of the Worst Crash in History

On this day in economic and business history...

The Crash of 1929 began in early September. It made its presence felt beyond doubt on two wrenching days at the end of October. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES: ^DJI  ) gave investors a heart-stopping ride that fall, collapsing from September's all-time high of nearly 400 points to less than 200 by mid-November, before appearing to stabilize at the end of the year at a level 35% below September's "permanently high plateau." It might have been tempting to believe that the worst was over, but the worst crash in history was only just getting started.

The following year saw the Dow lose another 34% of its value, as it closed out 1930 nearly 60% below 1929's peak. There was no relief in 1931. The Dow suffered its all-time worst calendar-year performance that year, slipping 53% lower to close at just 78 points -- a shocking 80% decline. But that wasn't the end of it. The Dow fell through the spring and into the summer of 1932 before plummeting to its final low of 41.22 points on July 8, 1932. Not only had the decline been extraordinarily steep, but its path had been extraordinarily volatile. The average price change for more than 700 trading days had been nearly 2% per day, and from beginning to end the market's valuation had plummeted from near all-time highs to near all-time lows.

The news of the day centered on an accord regarding German war reparations reached at Lausanne, Switzerland. Most commentary expressed a sense of general disbelief that the market might remain indifferent to "a new departure toward European good will and restoration of prosperity," in the words of The Washington Post. Wall Street's "singularly apathetic response" to the agreement that aimed to modify German repayments stood in contrast to the bond market's "evident satisfaction" with the deal, according to The New York Times. Despite the weakness in stocks, many financial professionals appeared confident that slashing Germany's required reparations to American interests from more than $2 billion to just $715 million would allow greater funding to flow into Germany, allowing the Depression-wracked country a chance to recover without funneling all its money into debt repayments.

The following Monday (July 8 was a Friday) saw a rebound in the market built largely on the strong performance of a few speculative industrial stocks. It was the 1932 equivalent of a garbage rally, as the rebound owed largely to bears covering their shorts. True to form, the Dow's rebound was impressive but somewhat ephemeral: By early September, the index had surged to nearly 80 points, and it would have finished the year in positive territory if not for an autumn collapse that mimicked 1929's. The Dow finished the year 23% lower than it had begun, a weakness partly the result of uncertainty swirling around 1932's momentous presidential political campaign. When that uncertainty cleared, the Dow finally shrugged off its doldrums to post the single best year of growth in its history. From the start of 1933 to its last trading day, the Dow gained 67%. It was still a long way off its 1929 highs, but there was finally some reason for optimism -- and the Dow would never again fall as low as it had on July 8, 1932.

The chronicle of commerce begins
The Crash of 1929 was well-covered with expert analysis thanks in no small part to The Wall Street Journal, which was first published on July 8, 1889. Predated by Charles Dow's "Customer's Afternoon Letter," which offered brief commentary and early stock-index prototypes, the WSJ emerged several years after Dow's first publications in a four-page format that cost only $0.02 and was not much different from Dow's original two-page "Letter." The WSJ was simply an evolutionary step up in quality, and for many years it was simply the only source serious investors had for the financial details we now take for granted. The Fool's own "History of the Dow" explains why:

The Customer's Afternoon Letter was nothing short of revolutionary. In Dow's time, consolidated stock tables published every day did not exist. Information about a company's balance sheet was rarely published, with management attempting to hide and obscure the full value of their company for fear of a takeover. The Letter not only reported consolidated stock tables, but also made public quarterly and annual information regarding company financials -- something that only insiders had available to them before this. Dow's publication leveled the playing field between the Wall Street elite and the individual investor. It would not be until the Securities Act of 1934 that companies would be required to file quarterly and annual reports that all investors could look at. So, for more than fifty years, the only place for the individual investor to get the straight poop on company financials was The Wall Street Journal.

The WSJ and other Dow Jones properties became part of News Corp. (NASDAQ: NWS  )  in 2007. Today, it is the largest newspaper in daily circulation in the United States, with 2.4 million subscribers, of whom about 900,000 are only subscribed to the digital edition. That's about half a million more subscribers than the second-largest newspaper in the country.

Cola without the calories
At a press conference in New York City on July 8, 1982, Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO  ) executives revealed "the most significant new product ... in the entire 96-year history of the Coca-Cola Company." That product was Diet Coke, the result of a two-year top-secret development program aimed at recovering the ground Coke was losing to other low-calorie sodas.

Coke found itself in a bit of a bind in the early '80s. The company had no low-calorie version of its flagship product but was already enjoying great success with Tab, a diet cola that was threatening Coca-Cola despite being produced under the same corporate umbrella. Producing an actual diet version of Coca-Cola ran the risk of cannibalizing Tab and damaging the Coke brand's prestige, should the product fail to catch on after its initial hype. On the other hand, a sugar-free soda offered Coke better margins, which was too good a promise to pass up. By the time Coke had its product in hand, the soda-drinking population was primed to drink Diet Coke "Just for the Taste of It," as the popular introductory tagline went.

Within a year, Diet Coke had leapt to the top of the diet soft-drink category. By the end of 1984, Diet Coke had become the third-best-selling soft drink in the U.S., behind only the two primary full-calorie colas. In 2010, Diet Coke overtook Coke's major competitor to become the second-best-selling soft drink in America, behind only Coca-Cola itself. Coke's executives rather quickly forgot about Tab, which is now little more than a footnote in the history of the cola wars.

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Monday, January 6, 2014

Lockheed Awarded $105 Million to Buy Parts From Xilinx

The Department of Defense awarded Lockheed Martin (NYSE: LMT  ) a $104.7 million defense contract Monday -- but semiconductor maker Xilinx (NASDAQ: XLNX  ) could be the real winner in this contract.

According to a DoD summary of contracts issued Monday, Lockheed won the firm-fixed-price contract to procure and deliver 83,169 Xilinx field programmable gate arrays (FPGAs) needed for the manufacture of several "lots" of Lockheed's F-35 Lightning II fighter jet. Specifically, Lockheed needs the devices for "low rate initial production Lot VII" all the way through "full rate production Lot III" of the Joint Strike Fighter.

Thus, it seems likely that much, if not all, of the revenue awarded to Lockheed via this contract will actually go to Xilinx, as it builds the chips needed to build Lockheed's birds.

Once manufactured, the planes in question will be destined for use by the U.S. Air Force, Marine Corps, and Navy, as well as for the militaries of Australia, Denmark, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Turkey, and the U.K.

Lockheed is expected to obtain all necessary semiconductor parts by September 2014, or the third quarter of next fiscal year. 

Saturday, January 4, 2014

The Importance of Choosing Great Leaders

On this day in economic and business history...

Thomas J. Watson, Sr. became president of the Computing-Tabulating-Recording Company on May 1, 1914 -- you know it today as International Business Machines (NYSE: IBM  ) , and it's thanks in no small part to Watson's enduring legacy that you know it at all. In 1914, the future IBM was a disjointed, sprawling enterprise that its founders were having difficulty controlling. Watson streamlined the company, giving it a focus, a motto, and a corporate identity that persists to this day.

To understand Watson's importance to the fledgling IBM, one need only see the facts presented in the obituary that ran in The New York Times on the day of his death on June 20, 1956:

The Computing-Tabulating-Recording Company was a small organization when he took over with fewer than 400 employees. Its products were a punch-card tabulator, which had been invented in time for use in the 1890 census; time clocks and other business machines. In February, 1924, the company was merged with the International Business Machines Corporation and assumed its name. ...

It would have cost $2,750 to buy 100 shares of the company's stock in 1914, the year Mr. Watson took over. Anyone exercising rights accruing to those shares through 1925 would have increased his cash investment to $6,364 for 153 shares.

Such a person would now hold 3,990 shares, and would have obtained a value of $2,164,000 based on market prices this year and cash dividends of $209,000 paid thus far. ...

The company has 60,000 employees. Its gross assets last year were reported as $629,510,998, and its 1955 net income after taxes reached a record total of $55,872,633.

Watson's legacy lived on at IBM after his death thanks to the work of his son, Thomas J. Watson, Jr., who became a legendary businessman in his own right by moving the company boldly into the computer age. Together, the two Watsons would helm IBM from 1914 through 1971, molding in a way few executives have ever molded a company. To read more about the Watsons' impact on IBM, click here to read about the three secrets to IBM's success.

Targeting low prices
The first Target (NYSE: TGT  ) opened in a suburb of St. Paul, Minn., on May 1, 1962. At the time, the store was a concept in upscale discount retailing developed to expand the reach of the Dayton Company, a department store company that had a critical role in the development of the modern shopping mall.

Target was at first merely one of several Dayton (and later Dayton-Hudson following a 1969 merger) store concepts, but by the mid-1970s Target had grown to become the company's most important revenue-driver. However, the company whose shares now read "Target" remained Dayton-Hudson until the year 2000, at which point it renamed itself. Four years later Target would divest itself of its department store segments, fully embracing the upscale-discount "concept" that had brought it from one of many to the second-largest discount retailer in the United States.

When Dayton-Hudson went public in 1967, it reported prior-year profit of $8 million on annual revenue of $223 million. Four decades later, Target earned $2.8 billion on revenue of $63.4 billion, representing annual growth rates of 15.8% and 15.2%, respectively.

It's not so BASIC as that
The very first BASIC program ran through the very first BASIC compiler at Dartmouth College on May 1, 1964. It was not the first high-level programming language -- FORTRAN had been released seven years earlier -- but it was the first language designed from the ground up to be easy to use (at least for those with technical inclinations). BASIC was so effective at spreading programming to the masses that it deserves primary credit for bringing about the PC revolution. Microsoft's (NASDAQ: MSFT  ) original business purpose, way back in 1975, was to implement a BASIC compiler on the MITS Altair microcomputer, and the company would continue to develop BASIC compilers well into the 1980s.

Kiss the sky
May 1 is a special day in the history of skyscrapers. The very first began construction on May 1, 1884. Built for the Home Insurance Company in Chicago, the Home Insurance Building was the first to ever use structural steel in its frame (although much was built with iron) and the first tall building to be supported by a fireproof metal frame. It would rise 138 feet into the air and comprise 10 stories by the time construction wrapped up later in the year. The metal-construction techniques pioneered for the Home Insurance Building brought its weight down to a mere third of that borne by similarly sized masonry-and-brick constructions, and it was one of the first to use another new high-rise development: the elevator.

Nearly 50 years later, on May 1, 1931, the Empire State Building opened to the public with a grand ceremony, complete with an appearance by President Herbert Hoover, who pressed a button to turn on the skyscraper's lights. The Empire State Building's construction was record-breaking and also quite rare -- it went up in a little more than a year, under budget and well ahead of schedule, employing up to 3,400 workers who built at a frenzied pace. Nearly five stories of the building were completed per week during the most productive construction periods.

However, the building also became a symbol of wealthy hubris in the face of an economic downturn: Its construction began in the early days of the Great Depression. When ground was broken in early 1930, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES: ^DJI  ) was already 35% off its 1929 high. By the time President Hoover pressed his ceremonial button, the index had utterly collapsed to a level 60% lower than that 1929 high -- already a record decline but far from the end of the slide. This horrendous market crash would later make the Empire State Building the prime example of the Skyscraper Index, which posits that record-breaking buildings often coincide with devastating stock losses.

The Empire State Building reigned as the world's tallest until it was surpassed by the World Trade Center's twin towers near the end of their construction. These new record-breakers also became examples of the Skyscraper Index, arriving as they did in the middle of the worst market decline since (you guessed it) the Great Depression.

You might soon be able to invest in the Empire State Building, if you're so interested -- the family that controls it is pushing hard to offer shares to the public as a real-estate investment trust.

More on Microsoft
It's been a frustrating path for Microsoft investors, who have watched the company fail to capitalize on the incredible growth in mobile over the past decade. However, the company is looking to make a splash in this booming market. In this brand-new premium report on Microsoft, our analyst explains that while the opportunity is huge, the challenges are many. He's also providing regular updates as key events occur, so be sure to claim a copy of this report now by clicking here.

Friday, January 3, 2014

Top 5 Stocks To Invest In Right Now

Although we don't believe in timing the market or panicking over market movements, we do like to keep an eye on big changes -- just in case they're material to our investing thesis.

What: Shares of Chinese stocks were getting dumped today following the Shanghai Composite's 5.3% plunge last night. Among those feeling the pain were YY (NASDAQ: YY  ) , Dangdang (NYSE: DANG  ) , Trina Solar (NYSE: TSL  ) , Giant Interactive (NYSE: GA  ) , and LDK Solar (NYSE: LDK  ) , all of which were down by 10% or more at one point today.

So what: A credit crisis is spooking China as interbank lending rates jumped to more than 13% last week, essentially bringing borrowing to a halt. As the drop in the Shanghai Index indicates, Chinese companies are down across the board, but the credit crunch seems to have been encouraged by the government, which has chosen not to intervene in the cash crunch, in order to punish speculators and establish a stable market.

Top 5 Stocks To Invest In Right Now: McCormick & Company Inc (MKC)

McCormick & Company, Incorporated (McCormick) manufactures, markets and distributes spices, seasoning mixes, condiments and other flavorful products to the food industry, retail outlets, food manufacturers and foodservice businesses. The Company�� sales, distribution and production facilities are located in North America and Europe. Additional facilities are based in China, Australia, Mexico, India, Singapore, Central America, Thailand and South Africa. The Company operates in two business segments: consumer and industrial. During the fiscal year ended November 30, 2011, the Company�� consumer business contributed 59% of sales and 79% of operating income and the industrial business contributed 41% of sales and 21% of operating income.

McCormick�� products are sold directly to customers and also through brokers, wholesalers, and distributors. In the consumer segment, products are resold to consumers through a range of retail outlets, including grocery, mass merchandise, warehouse clubs, discount, and drug stores under a range of brands. In the industrial segment, products are used by food and beverage manufacturers as ingredients for their finished goods and by food service customers as ingredients for menu items to enhance the flavor of their foods. Customers for the industrial segment include food manufacturers and the foodservice industry supplied both directly and indirectly through distributors.

Consumer Business

The Company�� brands in the Americas include McCormick, Lawry�� and Club House. The Company also markets brands, such as Zatarain��, Thai Kitchen and Simply Asia. In Europe, the Middle East and Africa (EMEA) its brands include the Ducros, Schwartz and Kamis brands of spices, herbs and seasonings and a line of Vahine brand dessert items. In the Asia/Pacific region its primary brand is McCormick, with the exception of India where its joint venture owns and trades under the Kohinoor brand. The Company�� customers span a variety of retail o! utlets that include grocery, mass merchandise, warehouse clubs, discount and drug stores, served directly and indirectly through distributors or wholesalers. In addition to marketing its products to these customers, the Company is also a supplier of private label items, also known as store brands. More than 250 other brands are sold in the United States with additional brands in international markets.

Industrial Business

In its industrial business, the Company provides a range of products to multinational food manufacturers and foodservice customers. The foodservice customers are supplied both directly and indirectly through distributors. Its range of products include seasoning blends, natural spices and herbs, wet flavors, coating systems and compound flavors. In addition to a broad range of flavor solutions, we strive to achieve customer intimacy.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Dan Caplinger]

    Investors have always been interested in stocks that pay dividends, but lately, low interest rates on bonds and other fixed-income investments have made solid dividend payers even more valuable. Among the most promising dividend stocks in the market is McCormick (NYSE: MKC  ) , and one big reason is that it is one of the few exclusive companies to make the list of Dividend Aristocrats. In order to become a member of this elite group, a company must have raised its dividend payouts to shareholders every single year for at least a quarter-century. Only a few dozen stocks manage to make the cut, and those that do tend to stay there for a long time.

  • [By Bruce Kennedy]

    (c) 2013 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.

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Top 5 Stocks To Invest In Right Now: Wincanton(WIN.L)

Wincanton plc, a contract logistics services company, designs, implements, and operates a range of supply chain management solutions primarily in the United Kingdom, Ireland, and Mainland Europe. It offers road, rail, containers, bulk tankers, and home delivery transport services; and warehousing services, including dedicated warehousing and storage solutions, flexible shared user warehousing solutions, duty suspended warehousing, returns management, fulfillment solutions, off-quay storage, and recycling solutions. The company also provides specialist supply chain services comprising change management, co-packing, consultancy, fleet management, international supply chain, production logistics, records management, retail store support, training solutions, vehicle maintenance, and 4PL. It serves retail, consumer goods, construction, defence, food service, energy, water, events, milk and bulk food, retail, and public sectors. The company was founded in 1925 and is headquarter ed in Chippenham, the United Kingdom.

5 Best Biotech Stocks To Buy For 2014: DRDGOLD Ltd (DRD)

DRDGOLD Limited (DRDGOLD), incorporated on February 16, 1895, is a South Africa-based surface gold retreatment company. DRDGOLD operates in a single segment, Ergo. Ergo is a surface retreatment operation and treats old slime and sand dumps to the south of Johannesburg�� central business district, as well as the east and central Rand goldfields. The operation consists of four plants: Brakpan, Crown, City and Knights. Included in the Ergo segment is the East Rand Proprietary Mines Limited (ERPM) surface operation comprise the Cason retreatment operation. Ergo is evaluating the viability of processing surface uranium- and sulphur-bearing tailings on the east and central Rand goldfields of South Africa. The Company�� business includes Crown Gold Recoveries (Pty) Limited (Crown), Ergo Mining (Pty) Limited (Ergo JV) and ErgoGold are jointly referred to as ERGO and ERPM. On June 1, 2012, the Company disposed of its 74% interest in and loan claims against Blyvoor.

The Company�� focus is on the recovery of lower-risk, lower-cost, higher-margin ounces. As of October 9, 2012, 68% of production comes from surface retreatment operation. The company holds a 74%-interest in operating subsidiary Ergo Mining Operations (Proprietary) Limited. Crown is the gold surface tailings retreatment facility, reprocessing the large and numerous sand and slimes dumps along the reefs that stretch from east to west just to the south of Johannesburg�� central business district (CBD). Crown�� major project is Top Star, a tailings dam to the south of Johannesburg�� CBD. ERPM is situated on the Witwatersrand Basin near the town of Boksburg, 25 kilometers to the east of Johannesburg. The Ergo as a joint venture between DRDGOLD and Mintails Limited. Wholly owned by the DRDGOLD group, Ergo has a network of surface rights that provide access to a further 600 million tons of surface tailings deposited across the western, central and eastern Witwatesrand. Ergo has three tailings deposition facilities. ERPM continues ! as a surface retreatment operation. It holds 65% of ErgoGold through the contribution of its Elsburg Tailings Complex.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Maria Levitov]

    The MSCI Emerging Markets Index added 0.3 percent to 1,033.97, after jumping to the highest level in five months yesterday. AngloGold Ashanti Ltd. and DRDGold Ltd. (DRD) drove South Africa�� benchmark equity index to a record, while the Philippine Stock Exchange Index led gains among developing-nation gauges. Russia�� Micex Index (INDEXCF) slumped 1.3 percent as oil companies plunged. The real strengthened on speculation Brazil�� central bank will raise its target rate next month.

  • [By Zahra Hankir]

    The MSCI Emerging Markets Index decreased 1.5 percent to 995.30, extending its slump for the week to 3.2 percent. Benchmark stock gauges from South Africa to Russia and China dropped more than 1 percent, while the Borsa Istanbul National 100 Index posted the second-biggest decline among the 94 world equity gauges tracked by Bloomberg. DRDGold Ltd. (DRD) and AngloGold Ashanti Ltd. decreased at least 3.7 percent in Johannesburg as the precious metal drove losses in commodities.

Top 5 Stocks To Invest In Right Now: Dupont Fabros Technology Inc. (DFT)

DuPont Fabros Technology, Inc., a real estate investment trust (REIT), engages in the ownership, acquisition, development, operation, management, and lease of large-scale data center facilities in the United States. The company leases its data centers to the American and international technology companies to house, power, and cool the computer servers that support their critical business processes. It also provides certain technical services to tenants, including layout design and installation of electrical power circuits, data cabling, server cabinets and racks, computer room airflow analyses, and monitoring. As of December 31, 2011, the company owned and operated seven data centers located in Northern Virginia; one data center in suburban Chicago, Illinois; one data center in Piscataway, New Jersey; one data center in Santa Clara, California. DuPont Fabros Technology, Inc. has elected to be taxed as a REIT. As a REIT, it would not be subject to federal corporate income t axes if it distributes at least 90% of its taxable income to its stockholders. The company was founded in 2007 and is headquartered in Washington, District of Columbia.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Rich Duprey]

    Investors might find it fabulous that DuPont Fabros Technology� (NYSE: DFT  ) �has increased its second-quarter dividend, the third time in two years the payout has been increased.

Top 5 Stocks To Invest In Right Now: Keegan Resources Inc(KGN.TO)

Keegan Resources Inc., a natural resource company, engages in the acquisition and exploration of mineral resources in west Ghana, Africa. The company primarily explores for gold ores. It principally owns interests in the Esaase gold property and the Asumura gold property located in south west Ghana. The company was formerly known as Quicksilver Ventures Inc. and changed its name to Keegan Resources Inc. in August 2004. Keegan Resources Inc. was incorporated in 1999 and is based in Vancouver, Canada.