Wednesday, June 11, 2014

Time to name market threats like winter storms?

To get peoples' attention and get them to prepare ahead of violent weather events, hurricanes, tropical storms and, more recently, winter storms are given names, such as Hurricane Sandy and last week's Winter Storm Dion.

One stock market strategist thinks it may be a good idea to start naming "stock market declines, or market storms, as they unfold" as a way to alert investors to possible risks to their portfolios.

"A year ago, The Weather Channel decided it would start naming winter storms in an effort to raise awareness and preparation," says Jeff Kleintop, chief market strategist at LPL Financial in a lighthearted report, Get Ready for Market Storm Angel. "If this indeed works, then naming the coming storms in the stock market in 2014 may be a great idea."

While predicting stock market storms is as difficult as accurately forecasting, say, where a hurricane will make landfall or how strong it might be when it hits, or if a snowstorm will turn into an ice storm, Kleintop notes that throughout history market hiccups have occurred on a fairly regular basis.

Over the past 20 years, minor market storms, or pullbacks of 5% or more, have occurred about four times a year, on average, he notes. The market has also experienced at least one major storm, or a drop of nearly 16%.

And while the U.S. market only had one minor storm in 2013, a drop of 5.8% , Kleintop expects a few minor storms next year. The stock market, he adds, could also see a major storm, or a drop of 10% or more.

"We believe 2014 is likely to mark the return of volatility," Kleintop says.

In what he dubbed a "tongue-in-cheek" report, Kleintop says he opted not to name stock pullbacks after "famous bears, such as Gentle Ben, Fozzie, Yogi, Winnie-the-Pooh or Teddy," mainly because they sound "too cuddly." Not too mention market storms are not bear markets, or 20%-plus declines.

Instead, he named the potential 2014 market storms (which he says will be temporary pullbacks on the way to double-digit g! ains for the year) after top dog names. The first market storm name on his list is Angel, followed by Buster, Chloe, Duke, Ginger, Harley, Jack, Lucy, Max, Princess, Rocky, Sadie and Toby.

These market storms, he says, will be driven by occasional "growth scares," as economic activity "may not accelerate in a straight line." Thus, an occasional weak reading on jobs or demand for goods and services could cause market storms in 2014.

When might Market Storm Angel hit? Possibly in the spring if economic data shows sign of weakness.

"Whether naming a market storm raises awareness in a positive way or prompts beneficial actions is debatable, and this proposal to name market storms is a bit tongue-in-cheek in keeping with the fun spirit of the holiday season," Kleintop wrote. "But it is important for individual investors to be aware of, and prepare for, greater volatility as they allocate to stocks in their portfolios."

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