Sunday, March 23, 2014

Earnings Are Snowed In

Each Monday, MoneyBeat publishes a short column in the WSJ print edition highlighting a statistic getting traction in the markets. This week's "Big Number" is -195, the number of S&P 500 companies that mentioned the word “weather” on their latest earnings calls.

Economists aren’t the only ones pointing to the brutal winter for poor data. Companies also are playing the blame game, and it has taken a toll on first-quarter profit estimates.

S&P 500 companies mentioned the word “weather” at least once on 195 earnings calls from Jan. 1 through March 12, according to a review of conference-call transcripts published by FactSet. That is an 81% increase from 108 mentions a year ago.

For instance, retailer Urban Outfitters sa(URBN)id 312 stores were closed for either a full or partial day in January due to wintry conditions, up from 13 closings a year ago. “Weather during the month of January in the Midwest and Eastern United States was so extreme that it warrants a discussion,” Urban Outfitters Chief Executive Officer Richard Hayne said last week on an earnings call.

Gap Inc.(GPS), McDonald's Corp.(MCD) and General Motors Co.(GM) were among other companies that cited the weather as a factor in their results and projections. Companies in the energy, consumer-discretionary and industrial sectors mentioned the weather the most on their calls, FactSet data show.

Heavy snow and subzero wind chills have prompted Wall Street analysts to ratchet down their expectations for the first three months of the year.

Analysts polled by FactSet expect first-quarter profit growth to increase 0.3% from a year ago. That is down from the 4.4% analysts projected at the end of 2013.

Poor weather has hit economic reports as well. Disappointing jobs, manufacturing and retail-sales figures have been blamed on the weather.

Earlier this month the Federal Reserve’s “beige book,” which assesses the economy in the Fed’s 12 districts, highlighted the weather’s impact. In that report, the word “weather” appeared 119 times, up from 18 references a year ago.

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